2007 CFBN Poll: Final

Po.	Team	W	L
1	LSU	12	2
2	USC	11	2
3	Georgia	11	2
4	Ohio State	11	2
5	West Virginia	11	2
6	Oklahoma	11	3
7	Missouri	12	2
8	Kansas	12	1
9	Virginia Tech	11	3
10	Tennessee	10	4
11	Texas	10	3
12	Hawaii	12	1
13	Boston College	11	3
14	Arizona State	10	3
15	Auburn	9	4
16	Michigan	9	4
17	Florida	9	4
18	Illinois	9	4
19	Clemson	9	4
20	Cincinnati	10	3
21	Texas Tech	9	4
22	Penn State	9	4
23	BYU	11	2
24	Oregon State	9	4
25	Tulsa	10	4

2007 All-Pro Team

CFBN is proud to release its 2007 All-Pro Team, which compiles the best NFL prospects regardless of class. Thus, this is not an all-pro-draft team, as it will include underclassmen. Without further ado, here is the 55-man roster:

OFFENSE

QB	Tim Tebow	Florida
QB	Brian Brohm	Louisville
QB	Andre Woodson	Kentucky
QB	Matt Ryan	Boston College
HB	Darren McFadden	Arkansas
HB	Jonathan Stewart	Oregon
HB	Rashard Mendenhall	Illinois
HB	Chris Wells	Ohio State
FB	Owen Schmitt	West Virginia
FB	Javorskie Lane	Texas A&M
WR	DeSean Jackson	California
WR	Mario Manningham	Michigan
WR	Michael Crabtree	Texas Tech
WR	Adarius Bowman	Oklahoma State
WR	Early Doucet	LSU
WR	Percy Harvin	Florida
WR	Limas Sweed	Texas
TE	John Carlson	Notre Dame
TE	Fred Davis	USC
TE	Martin Rucker	Iowa
T	Jake Long	Michigan
T	Sam Baker	USC
T	Jeff Otah	Pittsburgh
T	Ryan Clady	Boise State
G	Duke Robinson	Oklahoma
G	Gosder Cherilus	Boston College
G	Roy Schuening	Oregon State
G	Martin O'Donnell	Illinois
C	Jonathan Luigs	Arkansas
C	Steve Justice	Wake Forest

DEFENSE

DT	Glenn Dorsey	LSU
DT	Sedrick Ellis	USC
DT	Kentwan Balmer	North Carolina
DT	Trevor Laws	Notre Dame
DE	Chris Long	Virginia
DE	Vernon Gholston	Ohio State
DE	George Selvie	South Florida
DE	Greg Middleton	Indiana
LB	James Laurinaitis	Ohio State
LB	Dan Connor	Penn State
LB	Keith Rivers	USC
LB	Shawn Crable	Michigan
LB	Jordan Dizon	Colorado
LB	J. Leman	Illinois
CB	Aqib Talib	Kansas
CB	Mike Jenkins	South Florida
CB	Malcolm Jenkins	Ohio State
CB	Antoine Cason	Arizona
CB	Leodis McKelvin	Troy
FS	Kenny Phillips	Miami
FS	Marcus Griffin	Texas
SS	Craig Steltz	LSU
SS	Tom Zbikowski	Notre Dame

SPECIAL TEAMS

K	Art Carmody	Louisville
P	Durant Brooks	Georgia Tech

Congrats, Tebow!

Sophomore quarterback Tim Tebow has been selected as CFBN's 2007 Heisman Winner. Tebow led the Florida Gators to a 9-4 record in the SEC after accumulating over 50 touchdowns in a single season (second only to Paul Smith of Tulsa). Despite the Gators' loss to Michigan in the Capital One Bowl, Tebow was simply the best player in the game this season.

Tebow will be returning as the starting quarterback for Florida in 2008. While Tebow is the current front runner for the award, no player has ever won the Heisman twice in CFBN history (Archie Griffin was awarded the Downtown Athletic Club's trophy twice during his time at Ohio State). For more coverage on the 2008 Heisman Race, see the link on the right-hand side of the page.

Ryan Mallett out at Michigan?

Sources have indicated that freshman quarterback Ryan Mallett is looking to transfer out of the University of Michigan. The highly-touted recruit was expected to replace Chad Henne as the starter next season.

Mallett, a Texas native, has apparently been homesick since his arrival in Ann Arbor in August and has been looking to fair-weather programs in the South -- most notably Arkansas, now under highly successful head coach Bobby Petrino.

Michigan's recent coaching shift might also have had a serious impact on the freshman's decision. Under Lloyd Carr, Michigan was running more of a pro-passing offense -- one in which Mallett could have possibly excelled. With the hiring of Rich Rodriguez from West Virginia, Michigan will undoubtedly shift to the spread offense, which typically favors a smaller, faster quarterback. Rodriguez will likely seek a more svelte, athletic quarterback than the 6'6", 220-lb Mallett. Some examples of recently successful spread offense quarterbacks are Chase Daniel (Missouri), Todd Reesing (Kansas), Pat White (West Virginia), Chris Leak and Tim Tebow (Florida).

Michigan has had a tumultuous year, beginning with the passing of idolized long-time head coach Bo Schembechler, and most likely ending with a loss to Urban Meyer's Florida Gators in the Capital One Bowl. Over that year, Michigan has suffered two losses to rival Ohio State (one of which precluded them from the BCS National Championship), a big loss to USC in the Rose Bowl, an embarrassing home-opener to Appalachian State, as well as losses to Oregon and Wisconsin and the retirement of Lloyd Carr, leading to a confusing and painful search for a new coach with rejections by Michigan alum Les Miles and Rutgers' head coach Greg Schiano. The loss of Mallett would set the stage for a thorough rebuilding period for the Wolverines.

What's the Solution?

Once again, the build-up to college football's premier event is mired in controversy. Hawai'i (12-0), the nation's only unbeaten team, is not in the title discussion thanks to a weak schedule. That said, Ohio State (11-1) and Kansas (11-1) are the nation's only once-beaten teams. Both teams played weak schedules, yet the Buckeyes are ranked number one in the BCS and the Jayhawks are not in the discussion. LSU (11-2) was beaten twice, but ranks ahead of Kansas. Missouri (11-2) also lost twice, both times to twice-beaten Oklahoma (11-2). Neither of these teams is in the title game and the former is actually not even in a BCS bowl. However, thrice-beaten Illinois (9-3) is thanks to (a) traditional Big Ten ties with the Rose Bowl and (b) a BCS rule that does not allow more than two teams from one conference to reach a BCS bowl (Oklahoma and Kansas are already in, so Missouri is out). Then there's Georgia (10-2), Southern California (10-2), Arizona State (10-2) ... I could go on but you get the point. This is a colossal mess!

This brings me to the title of my article ... what's the solution? I'd like to entertain a few possibilities here, and then open it up to you folks to tell me which idea you like the best.

1) The BCS plus one system: This seems to be the direction college football is headed, so let's start here. This system would pit the four "best" teams in college football in a final four of sorts - a two-round playoff consisting of two semifinal matches and a final between the two winners. Essentially, this system would push the controversy from "Who's number two" to "Who's number four." Try the scenario out for 2007, as an example.

Semifinal #1: Ohio State (11-1) vs. Oklahoma (11-2)
Semifinal #2: LSU (11-2) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2)

Wait, isn't that the same Virginia Tech that LSU pasted 48-7? You bet! Are the Hokies more deserving than the Georgia Bulldogs? Well, the Hokies did win the ACC, though most would agree the third-best team in the SEC is probably better than the best team in the ACC. What about Missouri? The Tigers were the #1 team in the nation one day before the bowl selections came out. What about undefeated Hawaii? Southern California? Kansas? Arizona State?

At least in 2007, the plus one format would not have solved much in the way of controversy.

2) Playoff: This seems to be the people's choice in the world of college football, so let's explore this one next. Protecting academic interests aside, the first question becomes, "How many teams should be invited," followed by, "by what method should selection be done?" If you just took the top 8 teams based on the AP poll or BCS standings as one method, both would leave Hawai'i (#10 AP/#10 BCS) out of the discussion. As you might guess, this would not go over well.

BCS Top 8
#1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. #8 Kansas (11-1)
#4 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. #5 Georgia (10-2)

#2 LSU (11-2) vs. #7 USC (10-2) (finally ... just 3 years too late)
#3 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #6 Missouri (11-2)

Well, you could expand to the top 16 teams. You'd probably be able to safely assume that the best team in the country is in the pool if you go that deep. However, you'd be including 3 and perhaps even 4-loss teams into the title discussion at this point, which would make traditionalists bemoan the trivialization of the regular-season schedule.

BCS Top 16
#1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. #16 Tennessee (9-4) (#16 seeds never win in NCAA basketball, but here it might actually happen)
#8 Kansas (11-1) vs. #9 West Virginia (10-2)

#4 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. #13 Illinois (9-3) (no matter which system, Zooker winds up in a matchup he can't win)
#5 Georgia (10-2) vs. #12 Florida (9-3)

#2 LSU (11-2) vs. #15 Clemson (9-3)
#7 USC (10-2) vs. #10 Hawai'i (12-0)

#3 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #14 Boston College (10-3) (gee this looks familiar)
#6 Missouri (11-2) vs. #11 Arizona State (10-2)

Now, playoff proponents would argue that you could still have bowl games in addition to the bracket. Yeah ... right. I defy you to look at the other available teams and create more than two or three even remotely interesting matchups. Wisconsin vs. Texas. Okay, I'm out of ideas. Your turn.

3) Conference-based system: I don't know if you noticed, but in the above 16-team system, 15 were from the Big Six conferences, with the only exception being undefeated Hawai'i. Is 9-4 Tennessee more deserving than 10-2 BYU? I don't know. However, I do know that one of the arguments for a playoff system in the first place is to give teams outside the Big Six a chance at a title run. Therefore, there at least needs to be a suggestion here that affords that opportunity. One way would be to have automatic and at-large berths, similar to the NCAA basketball model. Here's the problem: there are 11 Div-IA (forget the new "labels" for the divisions I'm always going to say I-A and I-AA) conferences plus the four independents. So, even in a 16-team tournament, you'd only have 5 at-large slots, which I will fill with the five highest remaining teams in the BCS standings. Just for fun, let me make up more rules: conference winners from the Big Six are ranked 1-6. I thought about making conference winners 1-11, but then the #1 team winds up playing someone like Florida while the #7 gets Central Michigan. That doesn't sound fair, either. Here's how that might play out this year:

Conference Tournament
#1 Ohio State (11-1, Big Ten champion) vs. #16 Florida Atlantic (7-5, Sun Belt champion)
#8 Georgia (11-2, SEC at-large) vs. #9 Missouri (11-2, Big XII at-large)

#4 Oklahoma (11-2, Big XII champion) vs. #13 Brigham Young (10-2, Mountain West champion)
#5 Southern California (10-2, Pac-10 champion) vs. #12 Florida (9-3, SEC at-large)

#2 LSU (11-2, SEC champion) vs. #15 Central Michigan (8-5, MAC champion)
#7 Hawai'i (12-0, WAC champion) vs. #10 Kansas (11-1, Big XII at-large)

#3 Virginia Tech (11-2, ACC champion) vs. #14 Central Florida (10-3, C-USA champion)
#6 West Virginia (10-2 Big East champion) vs. #11 Arizona State (10-2, Pac-10 at-large)

4) Conference realignment: The most drastic of possible changes, if done properly this could be the most beneficial. Realistically, this is an infeasible suggestion, but one that is fun to entertain. If all of college football could be realigned into 8, 10, or even 12 evenly distributed conferences in terms of both number of schools and strength of programs, then strength of schedule, conference strength, and qualification for a playoff tournament could be normalized. Perhaps in the coming days, we'll entertain one such scenario to see if it's at all possible, but for right now let's just list it as a dream.

5) Old System: The BCS is a failure. One possible alternative to the current system is to go back to the way things were. Sure, there was no "national championship game," but it hardly seems like there's one now, either. At least the old system was honest to itself.

6) Crazy Go Nuts: Shorten the college football schedule back to 11 games for everyone and have a 32 or even 64-team tournament. Insane you say? Well, 32 of the 64 would wind up playing one fewer game than they do now (since half the field will lose and they'd virtually all have been selected for the 32 bowls), 16 more would play the same, 8 more would play one more, four would play two more, two would play three more. If you cut it back to 32 teams, then subtract one more game for everyone. It's really not that bad. Let's take a look, (Yes, I'm really going to do it.) Now, this would require a selection committee and whatnot, but for now I'm just going to place teams based on region as much as possible, since I think it will be more interesting that way. If a team has conference ties to a conference that are at odds with regional ties (e.g. South Florida in East vs. South), then the region less represented was chosen.

NCAA Basketball-style Tournament
EAST
#1 Virginia Tech vs. #16 NC State
#8 Wake Forest vs. #9 Florida State

#4 Virginia vs. #13 Rutgers
#5 South Florida vs. #12 Maryland

#2 West Virginia vs. #15 Navy
#7 Connecticut vs. #10 Central Florida

#3 Boston College vs. #14 Louisville
#6 Cincinnati vs. #11 Georgia Tech

SOUTH
#1 LSU vs. #16 Florida Atlantic
#8 Arkansas vs. #9 Kentucky

#4 Clemson vs. #13 Alabama
#5 Tennessee vs. #12 South Carolina

#2 Georgia vs. #15 TCU
#7 Auburn vs. #10 Texas A&M

#3 Florida vs. #14 Troy
#6 Texas vs. #11 Mississippi State

MIDWEST
#1 Ohio State vs. #16 Vanderbilt
#8 Michigan vs. #9 Michigan State

#4 Kansas vs. #13 Tulsa
#5 Illinois vs. #12 Purdue

#2 Oklahoma vs. #15 Indiana
#7 Penn State vs. #10 Texas Tech

#3 Missouri vs. #14 Nebraska
#6 Wisconsin vs. #11 Oklahoma State

WEST
#1 Southern California vs. #16 Washington State
#8 Air Force vs. #9 Utah

#4 Brigham Young vs. #13 New Mexico
#5 Boise State vs. #12 Colorado

#2 Hawai'i vs. #15 Arizona
#7 Oregon State vs. #10 UCLA

#3 Arizona State vs. #14 Fresno State
#6 Oregon vs. #11 California

Rich Rodriguez likely to be next coach at Michigan

Sources have reported that West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez has interviewed for the head coaching position at Michigan today. Rodriguez (44) met with Michigan Athletic Director Bill Martin and University President Mary Sue Coleman in Toledo, OH, seemingly to discuss the opening as Wolverines' head coach. While this may be a ploy by Rodriguez to garner a higher salary with the Mountaineers, indications are that Rodriguez will be accepting the job.

When confronted by the media following his interview, Rodriguez refused to answer to the media, stating that he was headed back to West Virginia to "get ready for practice." As opposed to Les Miles' complete denial of his interest in the position, Rodriguez seems to want to avoid the question. This seems to be an indication that he will accept the job.

BCS Aftermath

After another year where the Bowl Championship Series managed to "get it wrong," CFBN is here to analyze what should have been in the New Year. If we had our way, we would have scheduled ...

BCS National Championship
Ohio State v. LSU
Actual: Ohio State v. LSU
The system got the most important game right this year, pitting Ohio State, whose only loss came against BCS-bound Illinois, and LSU, whose two losses came in triple overtime by the work of then-Heisman front runners. Other teams that could make a claim to the title game fall short. Oklahoma and USC both had an outside chance, but both had pitiful losses (Colorado/Texas Tech and Stanford). Georgia could make an argument for the game, but they didn't even win their own conference (in fact, they were the third-best team in the SEC), so how could they be in a position to be national champs? Same goes for Kansas and Missouri. Virginia Tech would have been a heart-warming selection, but they have the same record as LSU and lost to them by 40+ at the beginning of the season. Illinois has three losses and shouldn't be considered. This leaves Hawaii, and to be fair, they beat a Ty Willingham team by only one touchdown. All else considered, LSU and Ohio State is fair.

Rose Bowl
USC v. West Virginia
Actual: USC v. Illinois
With the exception of maybe Georgia, USC is the hottest team coming into the postseason, with a top-rated defense and an offense that is finally firing on all cylinders behind a young set of receivers and running backs. On the flipside, West Virginia might be the coldest team coming into the postseason, with a horrid loss to Pittsburgh to preclude them from the title game. However, many skeptics have said that West Virginia has yet to prove itself on the big stage. While this isn't the same USC team as two or three years ago, it is still USC under the guidance of Pete Carroll, and it would be a right of passage for the Mountaineers to beat the Trojans in the Rose Bowl, familiar territory for USC. The current game pits Illinois against the Trojans, which might be the ugliest of all the BCS bowls (again, with the exception of maybe Georgia).

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech v. Missouri
Actual: Virginia Tech v. Kansas
CFBN calls for a simple replacement in this game, with the No. 2 team in the Big XII getting the nod over the No. 3 team. It is incredibly unfair to keep Missouri out of a BCS game when they were the No. 1 in the country less than 24 hours before the bowls were slated. Also, the match up of Chase Daniel's spread offense against Virginia Tech's defense is much more appealing than Kansas' lesser version of the same. The current system rewarded Kansas for not winning the Border War in the regular season and that should not be the precedent set for future bowls.

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma v. Arizona State
Actual: Oklahoma v. West Virginia
After another "rebuilding" year, Bob Stoops and his Oklahoma Sooners find themselves back in the Fiesta Bowl as the Big XII champions. CFBN would pair the Sooners against the local favorites, Arizona State. The Sun Devils had two losses all season, coming against teams that at one point were considered for the national championship. Meanwhile, the Arizona State offense has been extremely volatile at times, making it happen through big plays -- much the same as Boise State last season. A steady offense like Oklahoma's going against an explosive one like Arizona State would make the Fiesta Bowl much more exciting and unpredictable than the current match against the Mountaineers. If only Arizona were as talented as Arizona State, we could have seen a sibling rivalry between the Stoops' brothers.

Sugar Bowl
Georgia v. Hawaii
Actual: Georgia v. Hawaii
Hawaii went undefeated and does deserve a chance in a BCS Bowl. However, they couldn't have it any other way than a match in the Sugar Bowl against Georgia because of the constraints of the system. We expect this to be an ugly game with Georgia winning by a 24-point margin. However, if Hawaii can win this one, they make another bold statement for the WAC and mid-majors everywhere.

Mid-Major National Champs

After two years of undefeated mid-majors getting snubbed from the national championship, it has become evident that no mid-major will ever be given a chance to play in the coveted BCS Championship. Since this is quite unfair to the deserving programs that run the full gauntlet from August to January, CFBN is proud to introduce its annual mid-major National Championship.

CFBN would love to see some sort of play-off system for mid-major programs, so that an actual Division I-A mid-major national champion could be crowned. As of now, CFBN can only backlog as to which non-BCS programs had the best season since the inauguration of the BCS system.

Tim Tebow Wins NCAA Heisman

Florida quarterback Tim Tebow became the first underclassman to win the Heisman in the trophy's illustrious history. The Gator sophomore barely edged out Arkansas halfback Darren McFadden, who finished number two for the second consecutive year. Tebow certainly had the resume to compete with the probable No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Tim was the first "20-20" player in NCAA Division I-A history, passing for 29 touchdowns and rushing for 22 more. Last season, he contributed to Florida's national championship victory over Ohio State.

CFBN will announce its Heisman winner following the bowl season, as the postseason is the truest measure of a player's worth (as seen by Troy Smith in 2006 and Reggie Bush in 2005). Nonetheless, CFBN congratulates Tim Tebow on an incredible record-breaking season.

Tebow and the Gators will be prepping for their bowl game against the coachless Michigan Wolverines.

Arkansas Becomes 264th Challenge Cup Champion

It took three overtimes and almost 30 years, but with a 50-48 victory over LSU, the coveted CFBN Challenge Cup is headed back to Fayetteville. Arkansas' offense was powered by a Heisman-worthy performance from Darren McFadden. The superstar halfback rushed for 206 yards on 32 carries (6.4 ypc) and was also 3-for-6 through the air, totaling four all-purpose touchdowns.
The defeat eliminates LSU from the national championship picture.

Ramifications of Oregon, Oklahoma Losses

If the season were to end today, LSU would face Kansas for the national championship, and most people would have no problem with that. After all, Kansas is the only legitimate undefeated team (sorry Hawaii, but your signature victory this year over 6-4 Fresno State doesn't do it for me) and LSU is the strongest of the once-beaten squads. However, odds are pretty good that Kansas will trip up either against Missouri or in the Big XII title game, leaving the BCS door wide open again.
Let's entertain the possibility of one or both of the top two teams losing a game in the next couple of weeks. Who would replace them in the championship picture?

1) Missouri (10-1): I could live with this. If the Tigers defeat Kansas and win the Big XII title, it would be hard to discredit their accomplishments. Of course, a Missouri-LSU championship game would be awfully confusing ... Tigers, Tigers everywhere!

2) West Virginia (9-1): If the Mountaineers advance to the title game, with a nonconference schedule consisting of Western Michigan, Marshall, Maryland, East Carolina, and Mississippi State, this would only further bolster my argument from earlier this year. How could this team be ranked ahead of Ohio State or Arizona State? Granted, I'm not impressed with these two teams' out-of-conference schedules, either, but at least their in-conference schedule isn't laughable. I don't care how many Big East teams were ranked at some point this year ... this conference isn't very good. The Top 25 has been a revolving door, anyway. The entire Big East conference has been padding its record and reputation by playing mediocre out-of-conference games, and the media is rewarding them for it. It's thinking like that of Jason Whitlock, who said at the beginning of last year that he was ranking West Virginia #1 because they were the most likely to run the table, that makes the current system so defective.
West Virginia needs to be the sacrificial lamb that saves college football. Vote them out, fellas.

3) Ohio State (11-1): The Big Ten isn't that strong this year, but the Buckeyes almost ran the gauntlet, losing narrowly to a very strong Illinois squad. However, it is unlikely West Virginia will lose to Connecticut or Pittsburgh, so the Buckeyes may have to settle for the Rose Bowl.

4) Arizona State (10-1): The Sun Devils have a huge game against Southern California coming up. Victory over the Trojans might give this program a lift in the polls. ASU was leading WVU in the computer rankings going into this week, so if they could narrow the game in the polls, they might leapfrog the Mountaineers.

Of the four major contenders to supplant LSU or Kansas, three of them would qualify as legitimate, but it is the illegitimate contender who has the best shot at New Orleans. Once again, the BCS is starting to smell rotten as we approach December.

Complicating the Title Game

After Oregon and Oklahoma's topple from the top, Kansas is finally sitting in the catbird seat at No. 2. Unless one of them loses, LSU and Kansas will face off in the BCS Championship game in January. However, let's look at each of the undefeated and one-loss teams' roads to the title game.

LSU (10-1)
Predicted Finish: 12-1
Aside from Kentucky, LSU has gone without fault all season. They have played close games against Florida, South Carolina, Auburn and Alabama, but such is life in the SEC. In order to get to the title game, LSU has to stop Heisman-contender Darren McFadden and his Arkansas Razorbacks. While the Tigers shouldn't have much difficulty putting away Arkansas, Darren McFadden is always a question mark and can transform the nature of the game depending on which one of his Jekyll-and-Hyde personalities shows up that day. Even after that, LSU will have to play the winner of the SEC East, which will most likely be Georgia -- possibly the hottest team in college football right now. Even with that schedule, I give LSU a fairly good chance at making it to the title game.

Kansas (11-0)
Predicted Finish: 11-1
The Jayhawks have done what no one expected of them thus far ... and to make it to the title game, they will have to do more of the same. Kansas will have to play against two explosive offenses anchored by two extraordinarily good quarterbacks to end the season. Next weekend, they will face off against No. 4 Missouri. If they down the Tigers, the Jayhawks will face Boomer Sooner in the Big XII title game. Both Chase Daniel and Sam Bradford have the ability to put these birds out of their misery. I believe that Kansas won't have enough to hold off Missouri and Chase Daniel's spread offense.

Hawaii (10-0)
Predicted Finish: 10-2
Quite the opposite of Kansas, Hawaii has done what everyone expected them to do thus far this season. Colt Brennan has tossed his way into the record books over the last two seasons, leading the Warriors to a perfect record in the WAC. However, a one-man show isn't very successful when that man is riding the pine. After Colt Brennan's injury in the game against Fresno State, Hawaii has looked very ordinary. They nearly lost to Nevada on Friday night, and now they will face the toughest two games on their schedule -- Boise State and Washington. I don't believe Hawaii can win either without their high-scoring quarterback. The dream will die next weekend and be buried the weekend after.

Missouri (10-1)
Predicted Finish: 11-2
Missouri is a dark horse for the title game, garnering very little attention within the college football community. However, Missouri is for real. Chase Daniel has put up better numbers than anyone not named "Tebow" and has put the Tigers in a position to down Kansas and face Oklahoma in the Big XII championship game. Next weekend's game with Kansas will be a national affirmation for the winner. However, I don't believe either team will be strong enough to beat the Sooners. Missouri wins against Kansas, loses to Oklahoma and finishes No. 2 in the Big XII.

Ohio State (11-1)
Predicted Finish: 11-1
The easiest predicted finish I have ever had to make. Ohio State finished off their regular season with the annual victory over the Wolverines. While the Buckeyes have been lackluster all season, they are among the one-loss teams, staring at a potential title game appearances. In some ways, they are in an enviable position. With Oregon and Oklahoma out of the way, Ohio State can root for LSU to lose to either Arkansas or Georgia, Oklahoma to down the winner of Kansas-Missouri, Hawaii to lose to Boise State and Washington (if Hawaii is even considered a legitimate contender) and West Virginia to fall to either Connecticut or Pittsburgh. While I believe that Kansas, Missouri and Hawaii will drop out of the picture, Ohio State and West Virginia will have a tough fight for the No. 2 position in the BCS. I would give the slight edge to the Buckeyes, as the Big Ten is slightly better than the Big East, even if it wasn't readily apparent this season.

West Virginia (9-1)
Predicted Finish: 11-1
The Mountaineers haven't had to play anyone all year, so why change now. West Virginia ends the season with games against Connecticut and Pittsburgh. While Connecticut is a potential trap game for West Virginia, I believe that Connecticut might be the only team more overrated than the Mountaineers. Meanwhile, Rich Rodriguez shouldn't lose any sleep over Pittsburgh. West Virginia will be a serious contender for the title game, finishing 11-1.

With four one-loss teams, the process gets more difficult. LSU, as the SEC winner, deserves to get the top spot (anyone who can survive that schedule belongs in the title game, or at least Tommy Tuberville would argue so). Kansas should be ineligible if they lose a game, as they would not even be their conference champion. So, West Virginia or Ohio State? Both teams had one surprisingly decent non-conference game (Ohio State v. Washington, West Virginia v. Maryland), but neither made any effort to schedule any real powerhouses out of conference. Therefore, we turn to strength of conference, and the Big Ten wins. Moreover, the BCS would profit more from a game between LSU and Ohio State. Therefore, CFBN's newest prediction is LSU v. Ohio State for the title.

Five Contenders for the Crown

As this season has been topsy-turvy (for both the competitors and the authors of this blog), it seems as if no team will escape the season completely unscathed. At this point, there are five strong contenders for the title game, three of which have a single loss. CFBN will set the record straight and make its early prediction for the title game:

Kansas
The Jayhawks have certainly been impressive this season, starting 10-0 for the first time since the Cubs won the World Series. Although Kansas is subject to the usual suspicion of a "nontraditional" power, there are plenty of arguments to be made on their behalf.
Pros: They are one of only two remaining undefeated teams in Division I-A football, and the only one to do so in a major conference. While the Big XII North is roughly as competitive as the Sun Belt or admissions to the Thomas M. Cooley School of Law, it has been a big enough stage to lift the Jayhawks to the No. 4 spot in the polls (and probably climbing to No. 3 with Ohio State's loss) and will also provide them with adequate opportunity to prove their worth as the regular season concludes. And if style points count, keep this in mind -- Kansas' average margin of victory is over 30 points. Jayhawk enthusiast(s) can chalk that up to either a great offense or a lack of competition. Over the next couple weeks, we will hear plenty of both.
Cons: "They haven't played anyone." While this isn't entirely true (you don't get 10 wins without 10 opponents), Kansas certainly has had one of the easiest roads to the Top 10. They have faced floundering Nebraska and Colorado programs, and their skirmishes with the South division were with lowly Baylor and Oklahoma State. Given a game against a real competitor like an Oregon or an LSU (two completely randomly selected programs), the Jayhawks could be embarrassed. And no program likes getting blown out in the title game ... just ask Oklahoma circa 2004.
Chances: Very slim. In order for Kansas to get to the coveted BCS National Championship, they will need to win out. While Iowa State doesn't pose much of a threat, Missouri does. And even if they don't stumble against the Tigers, they will have a real game against the winner of the Big XII South (Oklahoma). I don't expect Kansas to escape the season with more than 11 wins.

Oregon
The Ducks have all the buzz in college football this season. Their schedule has been tough, their play has been electric, and their uniforms have been just hideous. They have one loss this season, but it was a close one against then-No. 2 California.
Pros: Dennis Dixon is likely to win the Heisman Trophy this year, so long as Darren McFadden doesn't pull out another record-breaking game performance. Jonathan Stewart has been quietly just as electric as Dixon and has also helped Oregon establish one of the fastest paced tempos in college football. Meanwhile, Oregon has had all the big wins necessary to be a contender in the computers. Thus far, the Ducks have trumped USC, Michigan and Arizona State, with their lone loss coming against a Jekyll-and-Hyde California team. Overall, they are frustrating to play against, but enthralling to watch.
Cons: They have a loss and they play in the Pac-10. USC has set the bar pretty high for Pac-10 teams looking to get to the title game. In 2003, USC had only one loss, and the BCS decided to choose Oklahoma and LSU (funny how history repeats) to play in the title game, despite USC's higher ranking in the AP and Coaches' Polls. Also, LSU and Oklahoma are traditional powers with better name recognition. It remains to be seen how the Ducks will travel for a BCS game, but the Committee knows that they have followers with LSU and Oklahoma.
Chances: Fairly good. Oregon has bested the better half of their schedule and now only face Arizona, Oregon State and UCLA. While all three could prove to be traps, Oregon has shown the confidence and the preparation to hang tough with anyone in college football, while all three opponents have stubbed their toe against inferior competition.

LSU
Slated to play in the title game since trouncing the Irish in last year's Sugar Bowl, LSU has seemingly been predestined to play in this game. However, LSU has shown several kinks in its armor thus far this season and will still have to survive an SEC Championship game at season's end.
Pros: LSU plays in the "toughest conference in college football," and has faired quite well in it. The Tigers have taken down the likes of Auburn and the reigning national champion Florida Gators. Their only loss came in overtime on the road against a team that hasn't had a decent football team since the Carter administration. They have possibly the best defense in college football and an adequate offense. As mentioned above, everyone is expecting them to be in the title game and that is sometimes enough to propel a team there.
Cons: They lost to Kentucky. I understand that Kentucky is playing well this year, but they still lost to Kentucky. They have also struggled against SEC foes such as Florida (who has the same record as Kentucky). Their offense has been underwhelming, with very few real playmakers and an injury-prone star receiver. LSU games have been prescribed by doctors in lieu of Ambien.
Chances: Very good. LSU has been predestined to be in the title game since last season. The voters have not swayed, and that is all it takes to play in a game like this.

Oklahoma
The Sooners have been in rhythm since the first snap, with Sam Bradford putting up a higher passer efficiency rating than Mark Mangino's weight. They suffered a serious setback against a hapless Colorado squad, but have looked very good otherwise.
Pros: Oklahoma sits at the head of the "grown up" table in the Big XII, with a solid win against rival Texas. The Sooner offense has been very impressive for a "rebuilding" program without Rhett Bomar or Adrian Peterson. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma defense has been what you'd expect from Bob Stoops -- more consistent than a 60-year old on fiber pills. They have the talent and the exposure.
Cons: They are on the outside looking in. It is difficult for a program to usurp a team with an equal record in front of it. LSU has been in front of Oklahoma since day one, and Oregon jumped in front with three big time victories. Oklahoma's loss to Colorado has seriously hurt their credibility, as they looked virtually unstoppable before that point. In order for Oklahoma to get their chance, they are going to need a loss from someone in front of them, and as everyone knows, it sucks to have to rely on someone else.
Chances: Fairly good. Kansas will likely drop in their match against Missouri, but even so, Oklahoma will get a chance to down them in the Big XII title game. Oregon has three trap games coming up, and LSU still has an SEC title game to win. Oklahoma has to sit back and hope they are dealt the right cards, but many different situations will win them the hand.

Hawaii
Colt Brennan and his WAC Warriors have stirred the Pacific and put themselves in a position to play in a BCS game. However, it doesn't seem entirely likely that they will get a chance to play in the BCS game.
Pros: Everyone likes an underdog. Hawaii plays in a mid-major conference and is on pace to finish undefeated, 12-0. Utah and Boise State have set the precedent for mid-majors, winning their BCS games in thrilling fashion. As both the Utes and Broncos went undefeated, analysts questioned the fairness of a system that leaves half the programs in Division I-A without any avenue to win a national title. After Ohio State's ugly finish to last season, many wondered how a fundamentally sound Boise State team would have faired against them. As the players noted, it is unfair to punish the players for the conference in which they play and the schedule which is slated. Even further, Hawaii has been as fun to watch as anyone in the nation, with Colt Brennan breaking Ty Detmer's touchdown record. With so few undefeated squads, its tough to ignore one that remains.
Cons: They are a mid-major, and the precedent has been set that no team will get to the title game without the proper strength of schedule. Even though the schedule is set years in advance, before teams are even aware of their future potential, programs must properly align their success with their schedule in order to reach the coveted game. Meanwhile, Hawaii is not out of the woods yet. Brennan, the sole offensive weapon for the Warriors, left last night's game with a serious concussion and is questionable for future games. And it couldn't come at a worse time, as Hawaii will take on Boise State and Washington to end the year.
Chances: Poor. Hawaii has a 50-50 chance of escaping unbeaten, and even so, a very slim chance of being selected by the computers because of their strength of schedule. Hawaii should be looking forward to an appearance in the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl.

CFBN Prediction:
Oregon-LSU

Top 25: Week 11

Top 25:
1. Kansas
2. Oregon
3. LSU
4. Oklahoma
5. Hawaii
6. Ohio State
7. Missouri
8. West Virginia
9. Arizona State
10. Virginia Tech
11. Georgia
12. USC
13. Texas
14. Florida
15. Boston College
16. Illinois
17. Virginia
18. Clemson
19. Cincinnati
20. Boise State
21. Kentucky
22. Tennessee
23. Wisconsin
24. Michigan
25. Penn State

Top 25: Week 4

1. USC
2. LSU
3. Florida
4. Oklahoma
5. West Virginia
6. Ohio State
7. California
8. Texas
9. Boston College
10. Rutgers
11. Clemson
12. Wisconsin
13. Oregon
14. Cincinnati
15. South Florida
16. Arizona State
17. Kentucky
18. Michigan State
19. Missouri
20. Hawaii
21. Purdue
22. Kansas
23. Connecticut
24. Virginia Tech
25. Georgia

Scheduling: A Disturbing Trend

Like all of you, nothing gets my blood running faster than a Saturday slate full of compelling gridiron matchups. Lately, that means Notre Dame's early schedule, followed by conference play. After early October, Notre Dame doesn't play anybody (except on even years where they play Southern California in November), and conference big boys are scheduling fewer interesting interconference matchups each year. I've listed the nonconference schedules of what I consider the upper half of each conference.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Boston College: Army, UMass, Bowling Green, Notre Dame
Clemson: Lousiana-Monroe, Furman, Central Michigan, South Carolina
Florida State: UAB, Colorado, Alabama, Florida
Georgia Tech: Notre Dame, Samford, Army, Georgia
Miami: Marshall, Oklahoma, Florida International, Texas A&M
Virginia Tech: ECU, LSU, Ohio, William & Mary

Top 5 Matchups:
1) Virginia Tech vs. LSU
2) Florida State vs. Florida
3) Miami vs. Oklahoma
4) Florida State vs. Alabama
5) Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame

Verdict: Half of these schools (FSU, GT, Miami) have scheduled two marquee games. A lot of these other games are not only not marquee, but are downright uninteresting. Clemson vs. Furman? Virginia Tech vs. William & Mary? Sign me up!

Big East Conference
Louisville: Murray State, Middle Tennessee, Kentucky, Utah, NC State
Pittsburgh: Eastern Michigan, Grambling State, Michigan State, Virginia, Navy
Rutgers: Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State, Maryland, Army
West Virginia: Western Michigan, Marshall, Maryland, East Carolina, Mississippi State

Top 5 Matchups
1) West Virginia vs. Maryland
2) Louisville vs. NC State
3) Louisville vs. Kentucky
4) Pittsburgh vs. Virginia
5) Rutgers vs. Maryland

Verdict: This is utterly embarrassing. No Big East team should be considered for national championship contention (are you listening, West Virginia?) until these schools schedule someone of note outside conference play. These guys are lucky Notre Dame athletic director Kevin White has pledged to play this conference three games per year starting in 2009.

Big Ten Conference
Iowa: NIU, Syracuse, Iowa State, Western Michigan
Michigan: Appalachian State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan
Ohio State: Youngstown State, Akron, Washington, Kent State
Penn State: Florida International, Notre Dame, Buffalo, Temple
Wisconsin: Washington State, UNLV, The Citadel, Northern Illinois

Top 5 Matchups
1) Michigan vs. Notre Dame
2) Penn State vs. Notre Dame
3) Michigan vs. Oregon
4) Ohio State vs. Washington
5) Wisconsin vs. Washington State

Verdict: Remove Notre Dame from the equation and these out-of-conference matchups look very ordinary. Michigan vs. Oregon should be fun. Ohio State can't be faulted for how badly Washington has fallen, but this game could drive one of the final nails into Tyrone Willingham's coffin.

Big XII Conference
Colorado: Colorado State, Arizona State, Florida State, Miami (OH)
Nebraska: Nevada, Wake Forest, Southern California, Ball State
Oklahoma: North Texas, Miami, Utah State, Tulsa
Texas: Arkansas State, TCU, UCF, Rice
Texas A&M: Montana State, Fresno State, Louisiana-Monroe, Miami
Texas Tech: SMU, UTEP, Rice, Northwestern State

Top 5 Matchups
1) Nebraska vs. Southern California
2) Oklahoma vs. Miami
3) Texas A&M vs. Miami
4) Nebraska vs. Wake Forest
5) Colorado vs. Florida State

Verdict: An unusually heavy schedule for Nebraska makes this top 5 interesting. Nebraska will probably keep it closer with the Trojans than folks are expecting, but that still doesn't look like a winnable game for the Cornhuskers. Colorado vs. Florida State could be funny.

Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona State: San Jose State, Colorado, San Diego State
California: Tennessee, Colorado State, Louisiana Tech
Oregon: Houston, Michigan, Fresno State
UCLA: BYU, Utah, Notre Dame
Southern California: Idaho, Nebraska, Notre Dame

Top 5 Matchups
1) Southern California vs. Notre Dame
2) Southern California vs. Nebraska
3) California vs. Tennessee
4) UCLA vs. Notre Dame
5) Oregon vs. Michigan

Verdict: Say what you want about USC, but they don't build a light schedule ever. Notre Dame and Nebraska may be their two toughest games in 2007, and they're both out of conference. California will be looking for revenge against Tennessee, as will UCLA against Notre Dame.

Southeastern Conference
Alabama: Western Carolina, Florida State, Houston, Louisiana-Monroe
Arkansas: Troy, North Texas, UT-Chattanooga, Florida International
Florida: Western Kentucky, Troy, Florida Atlantic, Florida State
LSU: Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Tulane, Louisiana Tech
Georgia: Oklahoma State, Western Carolina, Troy, Georgia Tech
Tennessee: California, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette

Top 5 Matchups
1) LSU vs. Virginia Tech
2) Florida vs. Florida State
3) Tennessee vs. California
4) Alabama vs. Florida State
5) Georgia vs. Georgia Tech

Verdict: A few of these games should be interesting, as listed above. Most of them are not. The SEC may be "the toughest conference in college football," but their out-of-conference schedule is far from it. On the bright side, it's not as bad as the Big East's.

Fortunately, there are still some good intersectional football games left in the modern college football landscape. That said, probably half of them are due to longstanding rivalries, like Notre Dame vs. Southern California, Florida vs. Florida State, Georgia vs. Georgia Tech and the like. As long as those rivalries stay alive (c.f. Penn State vs. Pitt), we'll at least have some interesting games outside conference play. But until teams are dinged for playing doormats, this trend will only get worse.

Anonymous Excel Mastermind Deserves Props

Some anonymous Excel mastermind has created and hosted a spreadsheet of all Division 1-A games for the upcoming season. This spreadsheet includes each team's schedule categorized by conference, and then specific games thrown into a "Games of the Week" sheet.

For those of you that are interested in this rather amazing resource, you can click here and follow download instructions. The one piece of the puzzle missing from this sheet is start times, which would be nice, but are not all finalized and will be readily available elsewhere.

2007 Heisman Race

After a disappointing bowl season for our Heisman contenders, Tim Tebow erked out as the 2007 CFBN Heisman Winner. Tebow, who struggled against Michigan, was still fairly strong in his last game of the season, while competitors Darren McFadden and Colt Brennan were humiliated in the bowls. Chase Daniel gets a tremendous boost in the bowls following his thumping of the Razorbacks, finishing second. Pat White reappeared in the top 5 with his win in the Fiesta Bowl.

Here are the final 2007 Heisman Standings:

Po.	Name	Team	Votes
1	Tim Tebow, QB	Florida	5
2	Chase Daniel, QB	Missouri	4
3	Darren McFadden, HB	Arkansas	3
4	Pat White, QB	West Virginia	2
5	Michael Crabtree, WR	Texas Tech	1

Weis vs. Willingham

In a recent article in the San Jose Mercury News, author Jon Wilner builds the argument that if Notre Dame dismissed Tyrone Willingham for losing badly against elite teams, then the same standard should be held to Charlie Weis. He goes so far as to say that should Notre Dame not tighten the screws on Weis in 2007 -- pending lopsided defeats against foes like USC and Michigan -- then it would appear to be racially charged.

"Notre Dame" and "racist" are two phrases that have been coupled together with some regularity since the dismissal of Willingham, so this warrants some discussion. So let me make it clear: Notre Dame's termination of Willingham was a business decision, not an act of racism. Furthermore, dismissal of Weis after next season would be a poor business decision, and that is why Wilner is somewhat misguided. Allow me to explain before you either write me off or nominate me for a Pulitzer (depending on your stake in the debate).

First of all, let's look at the data. Here are the two men's respective bodies of work.

Tyrone Willingham			Charlie Weis
Opponent			Opponent
(N) Maryland	W	22-0	@ Pittsburgh	W	42-21
Purdue	W	24-17	@ Michigan	W	17-10
Michigan	W	25-23	Michigan State	L	41-44
@ Michigan State	W	21-17	@ Washington	W	36-17
Stanford	W	31-7	@ Purdue	W	49-28
Pittsburgh	W	14-6	USC	L	31-34
@ Air Force	W	21-14	Brigham Young	W	49-23
@ Florida State	W	34-24	Tennessee	W	41-21
Boston College	L	7-14	Navy	W	42-21
(N) Navy	W	30-23	Syracuse	W	34-10
Rutgers	W	42-0	@ Stanford	W	38-31
@ USC	L	13-44	(N) Ohio State	L	20-34
(N) NC State	L	6-28	@ Georgia Tech	W	14-10
Washington State	W	29-26	Penn State	W	41-17
@ Michigan	L	0-38	Michigan	L	21-47
Michigan State	L	16-22	@ Michigan State	W	40-37
@ Purdue	L	10-23	Purdue	W	35-21
@ Pittsburgh	W	20-14	Stanford	W	31-10
USC	L	14-45	UCLA	W	20-17
@ Boston College	L	25-27	(N) Navy	W	38-14
Florida State	L	0-37	North Carolina	W	45-26
Navy	W	27-24	@ Air Force	W	39-17
Brigham Young	W	33-14	Army	W	41-9
@ Stanford	W	57-7	@ USC	L	24-44
@ Syracuse	L	12-38	(N) LSU	L	14-41
@ Brigham Young	L	17-20	Georgia Tech
Michigan	W	28-20	@ Penn State
@ Michigan State	W	31-24	@ Michigan
Washington	W	38-3	Michigan State
Purdue	L	16-41	@ Purdue
Stanford	W	23-15	@ UCLA
(N) Navy	W	27-9	Boston College
Boston College	L	23-24	USC
@ Tennessee	W	17-13	Navy
Pittsburgh	L	38-41	Air Force
@ USC	L	10-41	Duke
			@ Stanford
TOTALS	21-15	+18	TOTALS	19-6	+242

Weis holds a decisive advantage in winning percentage (.760 to .583) and point differential (+242 to +18). However, Wilner would correctly point out that he never contended otherwise. His argument was that (a) Bob Davie (35-25 .583) and Gerry Faust (30-26-1 .535) both had equal or lesser winning percentages, but were allowed to complete their five-year contracts, and (b) Notre Dame claimed its firing of Willingham was justified by lopsided defeats in big games, yet Weis isn't being pressured despite recent lopsided defeats to USC and LSU.

Both of these arguments can be addressed at once. Davie and Faust combined for seven defeats by 21 points or more in ten years of coaching Notre Dame. Willingham suffered eight defeats by at least three touchdowns in just three years. In other words, Davie and Faust were averaging less than one such defeat per season, while Willingham was averaging almost three. And some of these (NC State, Purdue, Syracuse) were in situations where Notre Dame was favored to win. In contrast, Charlie Weis has suffered two such defeats, both in 2006 and both to top-10 teams (Michigan and LSU). Wilner's position is defeated.

There are other arguments people sometimes make in addition to what Wilner contended. If you have an argument to the contrary, feel free to reply to this post. We here at College Football Nation would be happy to discuss it with you.