Ramifications of Oregon, Oklahoma Losses

If the season were to end today, LSU would face Kansas for the national championship, and most people would have no problem with that. After all, Kansas is the only legitimate undefeated team (sorry Hawaii, but your signature victory this year over 6-4 Fresno State doesn't do it for me) and LSU is the strongest of the once-beaten squads. However, odds are pretty good that Kansas will trip up either against Missouri or in the Big XII title game, leaving the BCS door wide open again.
Let's entertain the possibility of one or both of the top two teams losing a game in the next couple of weeks. Who would replace them in the championship picture?

1) Missouri (10-1): I could live with this. If the Tigers defeat Kansas and win the Big XII title, it would be hard to discredit their accomplishments. Of course, a Missouri-LSU championship game would be awfully confusing ... Tigers, Tigers everywhere!

2) West Virginia (9-1): If the Mountaineers advance to the title game, with a nonconference schedule consisting of Western Michigan, Marshall, Maryland, East Carolina, and Mississippi State, this would only further bolster my argument from earlier this year. How could this team be ranked ahead of Ohio State or Arizona State? Granted, I'm not impressed with these two teams' out-of-conference schedules, either, but at least their in-conference schedule isn't laughable. I don't care how many Big East teams were ranked at some point this year ... this conference isn't very good. The Top 25 has been a revolving door, anyway. The entire Big East conference has been padding its record and reputation by playing mediocre out-of-conference games, and the media is rewarding them for it. It's thinking like that of Jason Whitlock, who said at the beginning of last year that he was ranking West Virginia #1 because they were the most likely to run the table, that makes the current system so defective.
West Virginia needs to be the sacrificial lamb that saves college football. Vote them out, fellas.

3) Ohio State (11-1): The Big Ten isn't that strong this year, but the Buckeyes almost ran the gauntlet, losing narrowly to a very strong Illinois squad. However, it is unlikely West Virginia will lose to Connecticut or Pittsburgh, so the Buckeyes may have to settle for the Rose Bowl.

4) Arizona State (10-1): The Sun Devils have a huge game against Southern California coming up. Victory over the Trojans might give this program a lift in the polls. ASU was leading WVU in the computer rankings going into this week, so if they could narrow the game in the polls, they might leapfrog the Mountaineers.

Of the four major contenders to supplant LSU or Kansas, three of them would qualify as legitimate, but it is the illegitimate contender who has the best shot at New Orleans. Once again, the BCS is starting to smell rotten as we approach December.

Complicating the Title Game

After Oregon and Oklahoma's topple from the top, Kansas is finally sitting in the catbird seat at No. 2. Unless one of them loses, LSU and Kansas will face off in the BCS Championship game in January. However, let's look at each of the undefeated and one-loss teams' roads to the title game.

LSU (10-1)
Predicted Finish: 12-1
Aside from Kentucky, LSU has gone without fault all season. They have played close games against Florida, South Carolina, Auburn and Alabama, but such is life in the SEC. In order to get to the title game, LSU has to stop Heisman-contender Darren McFadden and his Arkansas Razorbacks. While the Tigers shouldn't have much difficulty putting away Arkansas, Darren McFadden is always a question mark and can transform the nature of the game depending on which one of his Jekyll-and-Hyde personalities shows up that day. Even after that, LSU will have to play the winner of the SEC East, which will most likely be Georgia -- possibly the hottest team in college football right now. Even with that schedule, I give LSU a fairly good chance at making it to the title game.

Kansas (11-0)
Predicted Finish: 11-1
The Jayhawks have done what no one expected of them thus far ... and to make it to the title game, they will have to do more of the same. Kansas will have to play against two explosive offenses anchored by two extraordinarily good quarterbacks to end the season. Next weekend, they will face off against No. 4 Missouri. If they down the Tigers, the Jayhawks will face Boomer Sooner in the Big XII title game. Both Chase Daniel and Sam Bradford have the ability to put these birds out of their misery. I believe that Kansas won't have enough to hold off Missouri and Chase Daniel's spread offense.

Hawaii (10-0)
Predicted Finish: 10-2
Quite the opposite of Kansas, Hawaii has done what everyone expected them to do thus far this season. Colt Brennan has tossed his way into the record books over the last two seasons, leading the Warriors to a perfect record in the WAC. However, a one-man show isn't very successful when that man is riding the pine. After Colt Brennan's injury in the game against Fresno State, Hawaii has looked very ordinary. They nearly lost to Nevada on Friday night, and now they will face the toughest two games on their schedule -- Boise State and Washington. I don't believe Hawaii can win either without their high-scoring quarterback. The dream will die next weekend and be buried the weekend after.

Missouri (10-1)
Predicted Finish: 11-2
Missouri is a dark horse for the title game, garnering very little attention within the college football community. However, Missouri is for real. Chase Daniel has put up better numbers than anyone not named "Tebow" and has put the Tigers in a position to down Kansas and face Oklahoma in the Big XII championship game. Next weekend's game with Kansas will be a national affirmation for the winner. However, I don't believe either team will be strong enough to beat the Sooners. Missouri wins against Kansas, loses to Oklahoma and finishes No. 2 in the Big XII.

Ohio State (11-1)
Predicted Finish: 11-1
The easiest predicted finish I have ever had to make. Ohio State finished off their regular season with the annual victory over the Wolverines. While the Buckeyes have been lackluster all season, they are among the one-loss teams, staring at a potential title game appearances. In some ways, they are in an enviable position. With Oregon and Oklahoma out of the way, Ohio State can root for LSU to lose to either Arkansas or Georgia, Oklahoma to down the winner of Kansas-Missouri, Hawaii to lose to Boise State and Washington (if Hawaii is even considered a legitimate contender) and West Virginia to fall to either Connecticut or Pittsburgh. While I believe that Kansas, Missouri and Hawaii will drop out of the picture, Ohio State and West Virginia will have a tough fight for the No. 2 position in the BCS. I would give the slight edge to the Buckeyes, as the Big Ten is slightly better than the Big East, even if it wasn't readily apparent this season.

West Virginia (9-1)
Predicted Finish: 11-1
The Mountaineers haven't had to play anyone all year, so why change now. West Virginia ends the season with games against Connecticut and Pittsburgh. While Connecticut is a potential trap game for West Virginia, I believe that Connecticut might be the only team more overrated than the Mountaineers. Meanwhile, Rich Rodriguez shouldn't lose any sleep over Pittsburgh. West Virginia will be a serious contender for the title game, finishing 11-1.

With four one-loss teams, the process gets more difficult. LSU, as the SEC winner, deserves to get the top spot (anyone who can survive that schedule belongs in the title game, or at least Tommy Tuberville would argue so). Kansas should be ineligible if they lose a game, as they would not even be their conference champion. So, West Virginia or Ohio State? Both teams had one surprisingly decent non-conference game (Ohio State v. Washington, West Virginia v. Maryland), but neither made any effort to schedule any real powerhouses out of conference. Therefore, we turn to strength of conference, and the Big Ten wins. Moreover, the BCS would profit more from a game between LSU and Ohio State. Therefore, CFBN's newest prediction is LSU v. Ohio State for the title.

Five Contenders for the Crown

As this season has been topsy-turvy (for both the competitors and the authors of this blog), it seems as if no team will escape the season completely unscathed. At this point, there are five strong contenders for the title game, three of which have a single loss. CFBN will set the record straight and make its early prediction for the title game:

Kansas
The Jayhawks have certainly been impressive this season, starting 10-0 for the first time since the Cubs won the World Series. Although Kansas is subject to the usual suspicion of a "nontraditional" power, there are plenty of arguments to be made on their behalf.
Pros: They are one of only two remaining undefeated teams in Division I-A football, and the only one to do so in a major conference. While the Big XII North is roughly as competitive as the Sun Belt or admissions to the Thomas M. Cooley School of Law, it has been a big enough stage to lift the Jayhawks to the No. 4 spot in the polls (and probably climbing to No. 3 with Ohio State's loss) and will also provide them with adequate opportunity to prove their worth as the regular season concludes. And if style points count, keep this in mind -- Kansas' average margin of victory is over 30 points. Jayhawk enthusiast(s) can chalk that up to either a great offense or a lack of competition. Over the next couple weeks, we will hear plenty of both.
Cons: "They haven't played anyone." While this isn't entirely true (you don't get 10 wins without 10 opponents), Kansas certainly has had one of the easiest roads to the Top 10. They have faced floundering Nebraska and Colorado programs, and their skirmishes with the South division were with lowly Baylor and Oklahoma State. Given a game against a real competitor like an Oregon or an LSU (two completely randomly selected programs), the Jayhawks could be embarrassed. And no program likes getting blown out in the title game ... just ask Oklahoma circa 2004.
Chances: Very slim. In order for Kansas to get to the coveted BCS National Championship, they will need to win out. While Iowa State doesn't pose much of a threat, Missouri does. And even if they don't stumble against the Tigers, they will have a real game against the winner of the Big XII South (Oklahoma). I don't expect Kansas to escape the season with more than 11 wins.

Oregon
The Ducks have all the buzz in college football this season. Their schedule has been tough, their play has been electric, and their uniforms have been just hideous. They have one loss this season, but it was a close one against then-No. 2 California.
Pros: Dennis Dixon is likely to win the Heisman Trophy this year, so long as Darren McFadden doesn't pull out another record-breaking game performance. Jonathan Stewart has been quietly just as electric as Dixon and has also helped Oregon establish one of the fastest paced tempos in college football. Meanwhile, Oregon has had all the big wins necessary to be a contender in the computers. Thus far, the Ducks have trumped USC, Michigan and Arizona State, with their lone loss coming against a Jekyll-and-Hyde California team. Overall, they are frustrating to play against, but enthralling to watch.
Cons: They have a loss and they play in the Pac-10. USC has set the bar pretty high for Pac-10 teams looking to get to the title game. In 2003, USC had only one loss, and the BCS decided to choose Oklahoma and LSU (funny how history repeats) to play in the title game, despite USC's higher ranking in the AP and Coaches' Polls. Also, LSU and Oklahoma are traditional powers with better name recognition. It remains to be seen how the Ducks will travel for a BCS game, but the Committee knows that they have followers with LSU and Oklahoma.
Chances: Fairly good. Oregon has bested the better half of their schedule and now only face Arizona, Oregon State and UCLA. While all three could prove to be traps, Oregon has shown the confidence and the preparation to hang tough with anyone in college football, while all three opponents have stubbed their toe against inferior competition.

LSU
Slated to play in the title game since trouncing the Irish in last year's Sugar Bowl, LSU has seemingly been predestined to play in this game. However, LSU has shown several kinks in its armor thus far this season and will still have to survive an SEC Championship game at season's end.
Pros: LSU plays in the "toughest conference in college football," and has faired quite well in it. The Tigers have taken down the likes of Auburn and the reigning national champion Florida Gators. Their only loss came in overtime on the road against a team that hasn't had a decent football team since the Carter administration. They have possibly the best defense in college football and an adequate offense. As mentioned above, everyone is expecting them to be in the title game and that is sometimes enough to propel a team there.
Cons: They lost to Kentucky. I understand that Kentucky is playing well this year, but they still lost to Kentucky. They have also struggled against SEC foes such as Florida (who has the same record as Kentucky). Their offense has been underwhelming, with very few real playmakers and an injury-prone star receiver. LSU games have been prescribed by doctors in lieu of Ambien.
Chances: Very good. LSU has been predestined to be in the title game since last season. The voters have not swayed, and that is all it takes to play in a game like this.

Oklahoma
The Sooners have been in rhythm since the first snap, with Sam Bradford putting up a higher passer efficiency rating than Mark Mangino's weight. They suffered a serious setback against a hapless Colorado squad, but have looked very good otherwise.
Pros: Oklahoma sits at the head of the "grown up" table in the Big XII, with a solid win against rival Texas. The Sooner offense has been very impressive for a "rebuilding" program without Rhett Bomar or Adrian Peterson. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma defense has been what you'd expect from Bob Stoops -- more consistent than a 60-year old on fiber pills. They have the talent and the exposure.
Cons: They are on the outside looking in. It is difficult for a program to usurp a team with an equal record in front of it. LSU has been in front of Oklahoma since day one, and Oregon jumped in front with three big time victories. Oklahoma's loss to Colorado has seriously hurt their credibility, as they looked virtually unstoppable before that point. In order for Oklahoma to get their chance, they are going to need a loss from someone in front of them, and as everyone knows, it sucks to have to rely on someone else.
Chances: Fairly good. Kansas will likely drop in their match against Missouri, but even so, Oklahoma will get a chance to down them in the Big XII title game. Oregon has three trap games coming up, and LSU still has an SEC title game to win. Oklahoma has to sit back and hope they are dealt the right cards, but many different situations will win them the hand.

Hawaii
Colt Brennan and his WAC Warriors have stirred the Pacific and put themselves in a position to play in a BCS game. However, it doesn't seem entirely likely that they will get a chance to play in the BCS game.
Pros: Everyone likes an underdog. Hawaii plays in a mid-major conference and is on pace to finish undefeated, 12-0. Utah and Boise State have set the precedent for mid-majors, winning their BCS games in thrilling fashion. As both the Utes and Broncos went undefeated, analysts questioned the fairness of a system that leaves half the programs in Division I-A without any avenue to win a national title. After Ohio State's ugly finish to last season, many wondered how a fundamentally sound Boise State team would have faired against them. As the players noted, it is unfair to punish the players for the conference in which they play and the schedule which is slated. Even further, Hawaii has been as fun to watch as anyone in the nation, with Colt Brennan breaking Ty Detmer's touchdown record. With so few undefeated squads, its tough to ignore one that remains.
Cons: They are a mid-major, and the precedent has been set that no team will get to the title game without the proper strength of schedule. Even though the schedule is set years in advance, before teams are even aware of their future potential, programs must properly align their success with their schedule in order to reach the coveted game. Meanwhile, Hawaii is not out of the woods yet. Brennan, the sole offensive weapon for the Warriors, left last night's game with a serious concussion and is questionable for future games. And it couldn't come at a worse time, as Hawaii will take on Boise State and Washington to end the year.
Chances: Poor. Hawaii has a 50-50 chance of escaping unbeaten, and even so, a very slim chance of being selected by the computers because of their strength of schedule. Hawaii should be looking forward to an appearance in the Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl.

CFBN Prediction:
Oregon-LSU

Scheduling: A Disturbing Trend

Like all of you, nothing gets my blood running faster than a Saturday slate full of compelling gridiron matchups. Lately, that means Notre Dame's early schedule, followed by conference play. After early October, Notre Dame doesn't play anybody (except on even years where they play Southern California in November), and conference big boys are scheduling fewer interesting interconference matchups each year. I've listed the nonconference schedules of what I consider the upper half of each conference.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Boston College: Army, UMass, Bowling Green, Notre Dame
Clemson: Lousiana-Monroe, Furman, Central Michigan, South Carolina
Florida State: UAB, Colorado, Alabama, Florida
Georgia Tech: Notre Dame, Samford, Army, Georgia
Miami: Marshall, Oklahoma, Florida International, Texas A&M
Virginia Tech: ECU, LSU, Ohio, William & Mary

Top 5 Matchups:
1) Virginia Tech vs. LSU
2) Florida State vs. Florida
3) Miami vs. Oklahoma
4) Florida State vs. Alabama
5) Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame

Verdict: Half of these schools (FSU, GT, Miami) have scheduled two marquee games. A lot of these other games are not only not marquee, but are downright uninteresting. Clemson vs. Furman? Virginia Tech vs. William & Mary? Sign me up!

Big East Conference
Louisville: Murray State, Middle Tennessee, Kentucky, Utah, NC State
Pittsburgh: Eastern Michigan, Grambling State, Michigan State, Virginia, Navy
Rutgers: Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State, Maryland, Army
West Virginia: Western Michigan, Marshall, Maryland, East Carolina, Mississippi State

Top 5 Matchups
1) West Virginia vs. Maryland
2) Louisville vs. NC State
3) Louisville vs. Kentucky
4) Pittsburgh vs. Virginia
5) Rutgers vs. Maryland

Verdict: This is utterly embarrassing. No Big East team should be considered for national championship contention (are you listening, West Virginia?) until these schools schedule someone of note outside conference play. These guys are lucky Notre Dame athletic director Kevin White has pledged to play this conference three games per year starting in 2009.

Big Ten Conference
Iowa: NIU, Syracuse, Iowa State, Western Michigan
Michigan: Appalachian State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan
Ohio State: Youngstown State, Akron, Washington, Kent State
Penn State: Florida International, Notre Dame, Buffalo, Temple
Wisconsin: Washington State, UNLV, The Citadel, Northern Illinois

Top 5 Matchups
1) Michigan vs. Notre Dame
2) Penn State vs. Notre Dame
3) Michigan vs. Oregon
4) Ohio State vs. Washington
5) Wisconsin vs. Washington State

Verdict: Remove Notre Dame from the equation and these out-of-conference matchups look very ordinary. Michigan vs. Oregon should be fun. Ohio State can't be faulted for how badly Washington has fallen, but this game could drive one of the final nails into Tyrone Willingham's coffin.

Big XII Conference
Colorado: Colorado State, Arizona State, Florida State, Miami (OH)
Nebraska: Nevada, Wake Forest, Southern California, Ball State
Oklahoma: North Texas, Miami, Utah State, Tulsa
Texas: Arkansas State, TCU, UCF, Rice
Texas A&M: Montana State, Fresno State, Louisiana-Monroe, Miami
Texas Tech: SMU, UTEP, Rice, Northwestern State

Top 5 Matchups
1) Nebraska vs. Southern California
2) Oklahoma vs. Miami
3) Texas A&M vs. Miami
4) Nebraska vs. Wake Forest
5) Colorado vs. Florida State

Verdict: An unusually heavy schedule for Nebraska makes this top 5 interesting. Nebraska will probably keep it closer with the Trojans than folks are expecting, but that still doesn't look like a winnable game for the Cornhuskers. Colorado vs. Florida State could be funny.

Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona State: San Jose State, Colorado, San Diego State
California: Tennessee, Colorado State, Louisiana Tech
Oregon: Houston, Michigan, Fresno State
UCLA: BYU, Utah, Notre Dame
Southern California: Idaho, Nebraska, Notre Dame

Top 5 Matchups
1) Southern California vs. Notre Dame
2) Southern California vs. Nebraska
3) California vs. Tennessee
4) UCLA vs. Notre Dame
5) Oregon vs. Michigan

Verdict: Say what you want about USC, but they don't build a light schedule ever. Notre Dame and Nebraska may be their two toughest games in 2007, and they're both out of conference. California will be looking for revenge against Tennessee, as will UCLA against Notre Dame.

Southeastern Conference
Alabama: Western Carolina, Florida State, Houston, Louisiana-Monroe
Arkansas: Troy, North Texas, UT-Chattanooga, Florida International
Florida: Western Kentucky, Troy, Florida Atlantic, Florida State
LSU: Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Tulane, Louisiana Tech
Georgia: Oklahoma State, Western Carolina, Troy, Georgia Tech
Tennessee: California, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette

Top 5 Matchups
1) LSU vs. Virginia Tech
2) Florida vs. Florida State
3) Tennessee vs. California
4) Alabama vs. Florida State
5) Georgia vs. Georgia Tech

Verdict: A few of these games should be interesting, as listed above. Most of them are not. The SEC may be "the toughest conference in college football," but their out-of-conference schedule is far from it. On the bright side, it's not as bad as the Big East's.

Fortunately, there are still some good intersectional football games left in the modern college football landscape. That said, probably half of them are due to longstanding rivalries, like Notre Dame vs. Southern California, Florida vs. Florida State, Georgia vs. Georgia Tech and the like. As long as those rivalries stay alive (c.f. Penn State vs. Pitt), we'll at least have some interesting games outside conference play. But until teams are dinged for playing doormats, this trend will only get worse.

2007 Heisman Race

After a disappointing bowl season for our Heisman contenders, Tim Tebow erked out as the 2007 CFBN Heisman Winner. Tebow, who struggled against Michigan, was still fairly strong in his last game of the season, while competitors Darren McFadden and Colt Brennan were humiliated in the bowls. Chase Daniel gets a tremendous boost in the bowls following his thumping of the Razorbacks, finishing second. Pat White reappeared in the top 5 with his win in the Fiesta Bowl.

Here are the final 2007 Heisman Standings:

Po.	Name	Team	Votes
1	Tim Tebow, QB	Florida	5
2	Chase Daniel, QB	Missouri	4
3	Darren McFadden, HB	Arkansas	3
4	Pat White, QB	West Virginia	2
5	Michael Crabtree, WR	Texas Tech	1

The Only Fair Way

So, winner of Michigan-Ohio State against who in the title game? That is the debate of debates now-a-days on ESPN and all other college football headquarters. Let's analyze the possibilities very closely ...

The Loser of Ohio State-Michigan
Jim Tressel doesn't want it. Lloyd Carr doesn't want it. It would be a rematch with no games played inbetween. It doesn't make very much sense.

If this is the solution, they might as well bring the National Championship to Columbus to give after Saturday's game and call that the BCS National Championship game.

Florida
The Gators have been dangerous with the split quarterback situation, but in all honesty, this team has struggled in every game they have played. They have skidded their way to a 9-1 record and just have not been dominant enough to be considered the best in the land.

USC
A popular choice -- since they are used to being in the title game. If they win out, certainly USC gets the nod (quality wins over Arkansas, Oregon, California, Notre Dame and UCLA), but that is HIGHLY unlikely. Look for losses against Cal and ND.

Arkansas
An SEC championship would put them in a good spot, but they still would fall short if Notre Dame wins out. Strength of schedule would make this argument seem ridiculous, but if you look to the common opponent in that situation (USC), Notre Dame has to go in ahead of the Razorbacks.

Notre Dame
Another popular choice. Michigan loss looks bad and will have difficulty placing them in a rematch with the Wolverines or in ahead of the Wolverines should Ohio State win. They definitely get the nod over Arkansas in that circumstance and would eliminate USC for the discussion (Arkansas eliminates Florida from that discussion as well). This would create an interesting conundrum ...

Wisconsin, Wake Forest, Boise State
Yeah, the records look good, but there isn't all that much substance there. Wisconsin will get screwed because the Big Ten can only send two to the BCS.

Rutgers
The Knights in Scarlet Armor. This is the only clear choice. Situational analysis: Ohio State beats Michigan. Notre Dame wins out (beating Army and USC) -- USC is out of the picture. Arkansas wins out (beating LSU, Miss. State and Florida) -- Florida is out of the picture. Rutgers wins out (beating West Virginia). We have four teams vying for the spot. Michigan, Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Rutgers. Michigan claims they beat Notre Dame so they deserve the spot. Notre Dame claims that they beat USC who beat Arkansas so they deserve the spot. Ohio State claims they beat Michigan and don't need to prove themselves again against them.

An undefeated Rutgers is the only clear answer.

The arguments brought against them:

1. The game will be a blowout for Ohio State -- fine, it's a blowout and Ohio State is the best team in the country. At least it will be definitive.

2. Rutgers is unproven -- give them a chance to prove themselves. Here it is; you want your measuring stick its right there.

Any other combination gives a team a shot, leaving equivolant teams complaining through the rest of bowl season (a la Oregon last year). Rutgers is the way to go.

Let the Madness Begin

As we approach the hype bonanza that will be Michigan vs. Ohio State, the BCS title picture is no clearer than it was weeks ago. Entering Saturday, it appeared that the Longhorns would have the inside track to Glendale to face the winner of UM-OSU. Enter Kansas State. Exit Texas. Same fate for Auburn vs. Georgia. And California vs. Arizona. And Florida vs. South Carolina ... no wait the Gamecocks choked on that one.

So now, the list of possible opponents for the Big Ten champion has changed. Will it be the Southern California Trojans, the Fighting Irish, the Razorbacks, or the Gators? Well, as fate would have it, Florida will play Arkansas, and Notre Dame will play Southern California.

Even so, there could be controversy. Some experts are projecting a close decision between Michigan and Ohio State, leading to a rematch in Glendale for the BCS Championship. I don't see this as a likely scenario, as the coaches will not vote this way, and the computer advantage over the one-loss teams that the loser of that game has held will be nullified.

Even still, there could be controversy. Should two of the four once-beaten title contenders win out, which one gets to go to the title game? I don't know. You don't know. Mark May certainly doesn't know. Thank you once again, BCS, for turning college football into figure skating.

Gerry's BCS Projections
BCS National Championship Game
Glendale, AZ (Jan. 8, 2007)
Michigan (12-0) vs. Notre Dame (11-1)
Prediction: Michigan thumped the Fighting Irish in September, thanks to plenty of turnovers. This won't happen a second time. Brady Quinn and the Irish offense move the ball somewhat effectively against a stout Michigan defense. However, the Irish front seven let Mike Hart run all day, opening the passing game for Chad Henne. Michigan 27 - Notre Dame 17

Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA (Jan. 3, 2007)
Arkansas (11-2) vs. West Virginia (11-1)
Prediction: It's easy to sell the Big East short based on their lack of competition throughout the season. Just last year, the Mountaineers faced SEC champion Georgia as a hefty underdog and pounded the stuffing out of the Dawgs. Steve Slaton is explosive. However, West Virginia's defense is very ordinary, and Arkansas is a well-rounded football team. Arkansas 31 - West Virginia 20

Orange Bowl
Miami, FL (Jan. 2, 2007)
Wake Forest (11-2) vs. Florida (11-2)
Prediction: This game will be closer than one would expect based on looking at the matchup. Wake Forest is actually pretty good. Florida is overrated. That said, this is still a mismatch. Florida 28 - Wake Forest 13

Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ (Jan. 1, 2007)
Nebraska (10-3) vs. Boise State (12-0)
Prediction: Texas' reeling down the stretch opened the door for Nebraska to make their first BCS appearance since an embarrassing loss to Miami in the national championship game in the 2001 season. Boise State makes its first-ever BCS appearance, which brings tears to the eyes of the Fiesta Bowl committee ... not ones of joy. Jared Zabransky and Ian Johnson cut loose on the Huskers, shocking the college football world. Boise State 34 - Nebraska 24

Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA (Jan. 1, 2007)
Ohio State (11-1) vs. Southern California (10-2)
Prediction: This could well be the national championship matchup, rather than the Rose Bowl game. Southern California is strong on both sides of the ball, but are no match for Troy Smith, Tedd Ginn, and the rest of the Buckeye assassains. Ohio State 38 - Southern Cal 21

How I Came to this Conclusion:
1) Arkansas loses to LSU, defeats Mississippi State, and defeats Florida in SEC title game.
2) Florida runs regular-season table, but loses to Arkansas in SEC title game.
3) Notre Dame defeats Army and Southern California.
4) Michigan defeats Ohio State.
5) Ohio State loses to Michigan.
6) Southern California defeats Cal and UCLA, but loses to Notre Dame.
7) Boise State defeats Utah State and Nevada.
8) West Virginia defeats Rutgers and wins out. The Big East finishes in a three-way tie, but West Virginia gets the automatic bid by virtue of the highest BCS ranking.
9) Wake Forest loses to Virginia Tech, but defeats Maryland and Georgia Tech.
10) Nebraska defeats Colorado and Texas.

Selection Process
1) BCS title game selects #1 Michigan vs. #2 Notre Dame.
2) ACC champion Wake Forest to Orange Bowl
3) Pac-10 champion Southern California to Rose Bowl
4) SEC champion Arkansas to Sugar Bowl
5) Big XII champion Nebraska to Fiesta Bowl
6) Rose Bowl compensated for loss of Big Ten champion with first pick. They choose Ohio State to maintain the Big Ten-Pac-10 rivalry.
7) Sugar Bowl has second pick. They choose West Virginia over Florida and Boise State.
8) Orange Bowl has third pick. They choose Florida.
9) Fiesta Bowl has fourth pick. They must choose Boise State.

Week 9 Games of Note

Top Three of the Week:
Miami at No. 20 Georgia Tech
Chris' Take: Miami 28, Georgia Tech 14
Gerry's Take: Georgia Tech 28, Miami 20

No. 21 Oklahoma at No. 22 Missouri
Chris' Take: Oklahoma 17, Missouri 10
Gerry's Take: Oklahoma 24, Missouri 19

GotW: Georgia at No. 8 Florida
Chris' Take: Florida 21, Georgia 10
Gerry's Take: Florida 30, Georgia 13

Calling the Upset:
No. 9 Tennessee at South Carolina
Chris' Take: Tennessee 27, South Carolina 17 Gerry's Take: Tennessee 23, South Carolina 21

Mismatch of the Week:
Northwestern at No. 2 Michigan
Chris' Take: Michigan 42, Northwestern 3
Gerry's Take: Michigan 35, Northwestern 10

Chris' Season Record: 27-13
Gerry's Season Record: 29-11

Congratulations Miami

That's right. Miami, my hat is off to you. You established yourself as the most thug school in the country, displacing reigning champ USC. In fact, college football has enough thuggery to put together a "Thug Rankings." ESPN has their Power 16 and their Bottom 10, so we over at CFBN figured "Why the hell not a Thug 8?" Here is a top 8 list that would make 50 Cent squeamish:

1. Miami
Brawling, shooting and group sex -- the U has some issues to address immediately. The Hurricanes have established carte blanche with the administration and can seemingly get away with whatever they want. If the players are angry on the field, they will pick a fight. If the players are out on the street, they will carry guns and knives. If the players are horny, they will rap about it. Larry Coker, you old fool, do something. And to the university administration, shame on you.

2. USC
Matt Leinart impregnates some chick from the women's basketball team and is then sighted wooing Paris Hilton and Jessica Simpson (no worries, I'm sure he'll be a devote parent). Reggie Bush steals money from a marketing agency and violates NCAA regulations while retaining his Heisman. LenDale White instigates a brawl in his first NFL practice, continuing his days as a spark in the powderkeg of the Trojan lockerroom. The alumns of USC are just adding to their storied program a la O.J. Simpson. I don't understand why this is happening. Haven't the teachings of Pete Carroll guests like Snoop Dawg sunk in yet?

3. Ohio State
I don't know who is worse -- the players or the fans. I could ramble on about Maurice and Co., but that's been played out. Let's talk about the fans. They are drunk, they are obnoxious, and they are violent. When they lose football games, they burn stuff. When they win football games, they burn stuff. If they don't like you, they will crap in your cooler (if you are lucky). Bowl games do not want them because they do travel in droves, are a public disturbance and are extremely cheap. They embody everything that is wrong with college football. I'm going to open up a shop in Columbus called "Flammable Furniture" and retire in style -- somewhere other than Ohio that is.

4. Colorado
Two words -- Katie Hnida. For those that are unfamiliar, Katie Hnida was a female walk-on kicker at Colorado (yes, just like in Necessary Roughness). Alright, she wasn't that good. She missed virtually every kick she took, but still she did not deserve what the Buffaloes did to her. After one practice, the Colorado football team group raped her. She transferred to New Mexico and then told her story. In response to this, Head Coach Gary Barnett simply replied, "She was a **nt. She wasn't a good football player anyway." Meanwhile, their student section is among the worst in the country (see Ohio State). They might suck this year, but Dan Hawkins is at least cleaning the program up.

5. Michigan State
The Spartans play with some sort of tribal pride that allows their emotions to get them into sticky situations. They planted their flag at the Notre Dame 35-yard line (the Irish did not respond back). However, they brought the house on Illinois for doing the same on the "S" at Spartan Stadium. I believe this raw emotion comes directly from their fearless leader, John L. Smith. He acts like a child on the sidelines, and in the pressroom, and probably in practice. The Spartans will have a revamping like Colorado when they finally can Smith this year.

6. Virginia Tech
Vick unto Vick. Virginia Tech has a reputation among college students as a rowdy, overly playful, alcoholic Disney. But thuggery? Come on, you boys are better than that. With the departure of Marcus Vick, the Hokies fall considerably on this list, but Marcus was enough to push Virginia Tech onto the thug list. Vick is documented as having numerous felonies brought against him (I believe rape and possession of a firearm top the list), but his actions in the bowl game have left a sour taste in this writer's mouth. Give it time and Tech might move off the thug list.

7. Florida International
We placed a lot of blame on Miami, as did everyone else in the media. I want to make something clear though: Miami did not instigate that fight. Florida International started that brawl. We expect more of Miami; they are an experienced program that should have not let that escalate. However, the blame for the brawl belongs to FIU.

8. South Carolina
The Gamecocks have their history of thuggish behavior. The most recent case came in Lou Holtz's last year as the head coach, when they instigated a bench-clearing brawl with instate-rival Clemson.

I'm not sure how long this installment will last, but I will take some feedback from our readers on their experiences with thuggish behavior. You have a story -- chime in on the comments board.

Week 8 Games of Note

Top Three of the Week:
No. 21 Rutgers at No. 22 Pittsburgh
Chris' Take: Pittsburgh 31, Rutgers 27
Gerry's Take: Pittsburgh over Rutgers

No. 5 Texas at No. 19 Nebraska
Chris' Take: Texas 35, Nebraska 14
Gerry's Take: Texas over Nebraska

GotW: No. 12 Georgia Tech at No. 13 Clemson
Chris' Take: Clemson 27, Georgia Tech 24
Gerry's Take: Georgia Tech over Clemson

Calling the Upset:
No. 18 Boston College at Florida State
Chris' Take: BC 35, Florida State 14
Gerry's Take: BC over Florida State

Mismatch of the Week:
Indiana at No. 1 Ohio State
Chris' Take: Ohio State 49, Indiana 10
Gerry's Take: Ohio State over Indiana

Chris' Season Record: 23-12
Gerry's Season Record: 26-9

BCS Predictions

With the release of the first BCS Standings, here is my prediction for the BCS games this year:

BCS National Championship:
Ohio State (12-0) vs. West Virginia (12-0)
The rules state that the championship game will be between No. 1 and No. 2. This season, it will come down to the only two unbeatens in major conferences -- Ohio State and West Virginia. Ohio State will have taken down Michigan while West Virginia eliminated Louisville.
Prediction: Ohio State wins the national championship.

Rose Bowl:
Michigan (11-1) vs. USC (11-1)
The Rose Bowl is traditionally between the Big Ten champ and the Pac-10 champ. The Big Ten champ -- Ohio State -- will be playing in the title game, so the Rose Bowl is compensated with the first pick; they use this to take Michigan who will face off against the Pac-10 championship USC Trojans. Michigan will have one loss coming against the Buckeyes; USC will be perfect in conference, but will have a loss to Notre Dame.
Prediction: Michigan wins the Rose Bowl.

Sugar Bowl:
Florida (12-1) vs. Notre Dame (11-1)
The Sugar Bowl is hosted by the SEC conference. Therefore, Florida would represent the conference, and the Sugar Bowl committee would have the first pick among the at large teams; they will select Notre Dame. Florida will win out and beat Auburn in the SEC championship game; Notre Dame will win the rest of its schedule, including the final game against USC.
Prediction: Florida wins the Sugar Bowl.

Orange Bowl:
Clemson (11-2) vs. Auburn (11-2)
The Orange Bowl is hosted by the ACC conference. Therefore, Clemson would represent the conference, and the Orange Bowl committee would have the second pick among the at large teams; they will select Auburn. Clemson will have one more loss coming against Virginia Tech, but will win the ACC championship game. Auburn will win until the SEC championship game against Florida.
Prediction: Clemson wins the Orange Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl:
Texas (12-1) vs. Boise State (12-0)
The Fiesta Bowl is hosted by the Big XII conference. Therefore, Texas would represent the conference, and the Fiesta Bowl committee would be stuck with an automatic mid-major bid; they will have to select Boise State. Texas wins out, as does Boise State.
Prediction: Boise State wins the Fiesta Bowl.

Peterson, Wolfe Exit Heisman Race

Saturday was a bad day for halfback Heisman hopefuls.

Adrian Peterson of Oklahoma and Garrett Wolfe of Northern Illinois performed poorly yesterday, leaving a clear two-man race for the Heisman -- Ohio State's Troy Smith and Notre Dame's Brady Quinn.

Peterson rushed for 179 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but broke his collarbone and will miss the rest of the season. Peterson is no stranger to the disabled list, with season-ending injuries both of his previous years with the Sooners. Without Peterson, Oklahoma will have difficulty advancing through its Big XII South schedule unscathed.

Wolfe exited the race due to inefficiency. Overhyped by ESPN, Wolfe carried for only 42 yards against conference foe Western Michigan. In order to stay a contender, Wolfe would have needed to step up every single weekend. A performance this poor by a player in a mid-major conference is the kiss of death to Heisman voters.

This exodus of running back talent leaves Steve Slaton (West Virginia), Mike Hart (Michigan), and Ian Johnson (Boise State) as the top backs in the country. But in all fairness, 2006 is now officially the year of the quarterback. Good luck to Troy and Brady on their campaigns.

Week 6 Games of Note

Top Three of the Week:
No. 11 Oregon at No. 17 California
Chris' Take: Oregon 35, California 17
Gerry's Take: Oregon 28, California 21

No. 13 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia
Chris' Take: Tennessee 42, Georgia 24
Gerry's Take: Tennessee 27, Georgia 23

GotW: No. 9 LSU at No. 6 Florida
Chris' Take: LSU 24, Florida 21
Gerry's Take: LSU 21, Florida 17

Calling the Upset:
No. 7 Texas at No. 16 Oklahoma
Chris' Take: Oklahoma 27, Texas 24
Gerry's Take: Texas 28, Oklahoma 14

Mismatch of the Week:
Bowling Green at No. 1 Ohio State
Chris' Take: Ohio State 45, Bowling Green 12
Gerry's Take: Ohio State 41, Bowling Green 10

Chris' Season Record: 18-7
Gerry's Season Record: 20-5

Week 5 Games of Note

Top Three of the Week:
No. 21 Boise State at Utah
Chris' Take: Utah 31, Boise State 30
Gerry's Take: Boise State 38, Utah 28

Texas Tech at Texas A&M
Chris' Take: Texas A&M 42, Texas Tech 40
Gerry's Take: Texas Tech 31, Texas A&M 24

GotW: No. 1 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa
Chris' Take: Ohio State 35, Iowa 10
Gerry's Take: Ohio State 23, Iowa 17

Calling the Upset:
No. 18 Georgia Tech at No. 11 Virginia Tech
Chris' Take: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia Tech 17
Gerry's Take: Georgia Tech 21, Virigina Tech 18

Mismatch of the Week:
Mississippi State at No. 9 LSU
Chris' Take: LSU 49, Mississippi State 6
Gerry's Take: LSU 42, Mississippi State 3

Chris' Season Record: 15-5
Gerry's Season Record: 15-5

Week 4 Games of Note

Top Three of the Week:
Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State
Chris' Take: Ohio State 42, Penn State 17
Gerry's Take: Ohio State 33, Penn State 13

No. 24 Arizona State at No. 23 California
Chris' Take: California 45, Arizona State 38
Gerry's Take: Arizona State 41, California 34

GotW: No. 9 Notre Dame at Michigan State
Chris' Take: Notre Dame 24, Michigan State 14
Gerry's Take: Notre Dame 41, Michigan State 35

Calling the Upset:
Iowa State at No. 8 Texas
Chris' Take: Iowa State 27, Texas 24
Gerry's Take: Texas 56, Iowa State 13

Mismatch of the Week:
Buffalo at No. 3 Auburn
Chris' Take: Auburn 48, Buffalo 7
Gerry's Take: Auburn 63, Buffalo 0

Chris' Season Record: 11-4
Gerry's Season Record: 11-4