Ramifications of Oregon, Oklahoma Losses

If the season were to end today, LSU would face Kansas for the national championship, and most people would have no problem with that. After all, Kansas is the only legitimate undefeated team (sorry Hawaii, but your signature victory this year over 6-4 Fresno State doesn't do it for me) and LSU is the strongest of the once-beaten squads. However, odds are pretty good that Kansas will trip up either against Missouri or in the Big XII title game, leaving the BCS door wide open again.
Let's entertain the possibility of one or both of the top two teams losing a game in the next couple of weeks. Who would replace them in the championship picture?

1) Missouri (10-1): I could live with this. If the Tigers defeat Kansas and win the Big XII title, it would be hard to discredit their accomplishments. Of course, a Missouri-LSU championship game would be awfully confusing ... Tigers, Tigers everywhere!

2) West Virginia (9-1): If the Mountaineers advance to the title game, with a nonconference schedule consisting of Western Michigan, Marshall, Maryland, East Carolina, and Mississippi State, this would only further bolster my argument from earlier this year. How could this team be ranked ahead of Ohio State or Arizona State? Granted, I'm not impressed with these two teams' out-of-conference schedules, either, but at least their in-conference schedule isn't laughable. I don't care how many Big East teams were ranked at some point this year ... this conference isn't very good. The Top 25 has been a revolving door, anyway. The entire Big East conference has been padding its record and reputation by playing mediocre out-of-conference games, and the media is rewarding them for it. It's thinking like that of Jason Whitlock, who said at the beginning of last year that he was ranking West Virginia #1 because they were the most likely to run the table, that makes the current system so defective.
West Virginia needs to be the sacrificial lamb that saves college football. Vote them out, fellas.

3) Ohio State (11-1): The Big Ten isn't that strong this year, but the Buckeyes almost ran the gauntlet, losing narrowly to a very strong Illinois squad. However, it is unlikely West Virginia will lose to Connecticut or Pittsburgh, so the Buckeyes may have to settle for the Rose Bowl.

4) Arizona State (10-1): The Sun Devils have a huge game against Southern California coming up. Victory over the Trojans might give this program a lift in the polls. ASU was leading WVU in the computer rankings going into this week, so if they could narrow the game in the polls, they might leapfrog the Mountaineers.

Of the four major contenders to supplant LSU or Kansas, three of them would qualify as legitimate, but it is the illegitimate contender who has the best shot at New Orleans. Once again, the BCS is starting to smell rotten as we approach December.

Scheduling: A Disturbing Trend

Like all of you, nothing gets my blood running faster than a Saturday slate full of compelling gridiron matchups. Lately, that means Notre Dame's early schedule, followed by conference play. After early October, Notre Dame doesn't play anybody (except on even years where they play Southern California in November), and conference big boys are scheduling fewer interesting interconference matchups each year. I've listed the nonconference schedules of what I consider the upper half of each conference.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Boston College: Army, UMass, Bowling Green, Notre Dame
Clemson: Lousiana-Monroe, Furman, Central Michigan, South Carolina
Florida State: UAB, Colorado, Alabama, Florida
Georgia Tech: Notre Dame, Samford, Army, Georgia
Miami: Marshall, Oklahoma, Florida International, Texas A&M
Virginia Tech: ECU, LSU, Ohio, William & Mary

Top 5 Matchups:
1) Virginia Tech vs. LSU
2) Florida State vs. Florida
3) Miami vs. Oklahoma
4) Florida State vs. Alabama
5) Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame

Verdict: Half of these schools (FSU, GT, Miami) have scheduled two marquee games. A lot of these other games are not only not marquee, but are downright uninteresting. Clemson vs. Furman? Virginia Tech vs. William & Mary? Sign me up!

Big East Conference
Louisville: Murray State, Middle Tennessee, Kentucky, Utah, NC State
Pittsburgh: Eastern Michigan, Grambling State, Michigan State, Virginia, Navy
Rutgers: Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State, Maryland, Army
West Virginia: Western Michigan, Marshall, Maryland, East Carolina, Mississippi State

Top 5 Matchups
1) West Virginia vs. Maryland
2) Louisville vs. NC State
3) Louisville vs. Kentucky
4) Pittsburgh vs. Virginia
5) Rutgers vs. Maryland

Verdict: This is utterly embarrassing. No Big East team should be considered for national championship contention (are you listening, West Virginia?) until these schools schedule someone of note outside conference play. These guys are lucky Notre Dame athletic director Kevin White has pledged to play this conference three games per year starting in 2009.

Big Ten Conference
Iowa: NIU, Syracuse, Iowa State, Western Michigan
Michigan: Appalachian State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan
Ohio State: Youngstown State, Akron, Washington, Kent State
Penn State: Florida International, Notre Dame, Buffalo, Temple
Wisconsin: Washington State, UNLV, The Citadel, Northern Illinois

Top 5 Matchups
1) Michigan vs. Notre Dame
2) Penn State vs. Notre Dame
3) Michigan vs. Oregon
4) Ohio State vs. Washington
5) Wisconsin vs. Washington State

Verdict: Remove Notre Dame from the equation and these out-of-conference matchups look very ordinary. Michigan vs. Oregon should be fun. Ohio State can't be faulted for how badly Washington has fallen, but this game could drive one of the final nails into Tyrone Willingham's coffin.

Big XII Conference
Colorado: Colorado State, Arizona State, Florida State, Miami (OH)
Nebraska: Nevada, Wake Forest, Southern California, Ball State
Oklahoma: North Texas, Miami, Utah State, Tulsa
Texas: Arkansas State, TCU, UCF, Rice
Texas A&M: Montana State, Fresno State, Louisiana-Monroe, Miami
Texas Tech: SMU, UTEP, Rice, Northwestern State

Top 5 Matchups
1) Nebraska vs. Southern California
2) Oklahoma vs. Miami
3) Texas A&M vs. Miami
4) Nebraska vs. Wake Forest
5) Colorado vs. Florida State

Verdict: An unusually heavy schedule for Nebraska makes this top 5 interesting. Nebraska will probably keep it closer with the Trojans than folks are expecting, but that still doesn't look like a winnable game for the Cornhuskers. Colorado vs. Florida State could be funny.

Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona State: San Jose State, Colorado, San Diego State
California: Tennessee, Colorado State, Louisiana Tech
Oregon: Houston, Michigan, Fresno State
UCLA: BYU, Utah, Notre Dame
Southern California: Idaho, Nebraska, Notre Dame

Top 5 Matchups
1) Southern California vs. Notre Dame
2) Southern California vs. Nebraska
3) California vs. Tennessee
4) UCLA vs. Notre Dame
5) Oregon vs. Michigan

Verdict: Say what you want about USC, but they don't build a light schedule ever. Notre Dame and Nebraska may be their two toughest games in 2007, and they're both out of conference. California will be looking for revenge against Tennessee, as will UCLA against Notre Dame.

Southeastern Conference
Alabama: Western Carolina, Florida State, Houston, Louisiana-Monroe
Arkansas: Troy, North Texas, UT-Chattanooga, Florida International
Florida: Western Kentucky, Troy, Florida Atlantic, Florida State
LSU: Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Tulane, Louisiana Tech
Georgia: Oklahoma State, Western Carolina, Troy, Georgia Tech
Tennessee: California, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette

Top 5 Matchups
1) LSU vs. Virginia Tech
2) Florida vs. Florida State
3) Tennessee vs. California
4) Alabama vs. Florida State
5) Georgia vs. Georgia Tech

Verdict: A few of these games should be interesting, as listed above. Most of them are not. The SEC may be "the toughest conference in college football," but their out-of-conference schedule is far from it. On the bright side, it's not as bad as the Big East's.

Fortunately, there are still some good intersectional football games left in the modern college football landscape. That said, probably half of them are due to longstanding rivalries, like Notre Dame vs. Southern California, Florida vs. Florida State, Georgia vs. Georgia Tech and the like. As long as those rivalries stay alive (c.f. Penn State vs. Pitt), we'll at least have some interesting games outside conference play. But until teams are dinged for playing doormats, this trend will only get worse.

2007 Heisman Race

After a disappointing bowl season for our Heisman contenders, Tim Tebow erked out as the 2007 CFBN Heisman Winner. Tebow, who struggled against Michigan, was still fairly strong in his last game of the season, while competitors Darren McFadden and Colt Brennan were humiliated in the bowls. Chase Daniel gets a tremendous boost in the bowls following his thumping of the Razorbacks, finishing second. Pat White reappeared in the top 5 with his win in the Fiesta Bowl.

Here are the final 2007 Heisman Standings:

Po.	Name	Team	Votes
1	Tim Tebow, QB	Florida	5
2	Chase Daniel, QB	Missouri	4
3	Darren McFadden, HB	Arkansas	3
4	Pat White, QB	West Virginia	2
5	Michael Crabtree, WR	Texas Tech	1

Who Should Play for the Title?

Chris gave his take on this potential BCS mess. Now it's my turn. Let me start off by saying that Rutgers will not be undefeated at the end of the season. I predict they will lose to Cincinnati and West Virginia. Nevertheless, an undefeated Rutgers should not be given the opportunity to play for the national championship. Why? For the same reason that Louisville and West Virginia should not have been given the opportunity - it sets a bad precedent. The Big East got fat this year on playing a ridiculously weak non-conference schedule. If the Big East is rewarded with a shot at the national championship, then it will only further propagate this cowardly habit. Ohio State went down to Austin and played the defending national champions. Arkansas played the Trojans. What did Rutgers do besides play a couple of overrated in-conference foes? If Rutgers goes to the title game, then college football as we know it is dead.

So who should go? Well, that's a complicated issue. The Trojans have been unimpressive this year, with the exception of a big opening victory against Arkansas. They're ranked third in the BCS largely on reputation. However, if USC can beat Cal, Notre Dame, and UCLA in the next three weeks, they might have a legitimate case. With the way things have been going since the installation of Charlie Weis as head coach of Notre Dame, the Trojans better watch out next week, provided they handle the Golden Bears on Saturday. After all, Reggie Bush isn't available to push Booty into the end zone this time.

How about Florida? Well, they've been unimpressive, also. South Carolina nearly sunk the Gators, but thanks to poor special teams, Florida chomps on. If they win the SEC and USC loses one of the last three, these guys will get the nod, but they don't really deserve it. The SEC is usually college football's strongest conference, but it isn't this year.

What about Arkansas? The Razorbacks have been white hot since opening up by taking a 50-14 drubbing at the hands of the Trojans. If Arkansas wins out, they will have a legitimate claim to a spot in the title game.

How about Notre Dame? The Irish played most of their tough games to start the year. They struggled several times this year, and have not looked like a national championship contender. Nevertheless, a big win over a one-loss USC in the Coliseum could punch Notre Dame's ticket to Glendale, setting up either a rematch of the 2006 Fiesta Bowl or with Michigan. Notre Dame looked overmatched in both of those contests.

What about an all-Big Ten final? This is a terrible idea. Contrary to what the talking heads in Bristol are saying, no one outside of the Midwest is interested in seeing Ohio State and Michigan play twice. The very idea renders the first matchup meaningless. Playing in a conference means you have to win it to contend for the title. If you lose the de facto conference championship game, well then I guess that's just how it goes. Sorry.

Having considered these choices, it is apparent there is no good answer to this question. Whatever the answer winds up being, be sure that there will be plenty of grumbling.

The Only Fair Way

So, winner of Michigan-Ohio State against who in the title game? That is the debate of debates now-a-days on ESPN and all other college football headquarters. Let's analyze the possibilities very closely ...

The Loser of Ohio State-Michigan
Jim Tressel doesn't want it. Lloyd Carr doesn't want it. It would be a rematch with no games played inbetween. It doesn't make very much sense.

If this is the solution, they might as well bring the National Championship to Columbus to give after Saturday's game and call that the BCS National Championship game.

Florida
The Gators have been dangerous with the split quarterback situation, but in all honesty, this team has struggled in every game they have played. They have skidded their way to a 9-1 record and just have not been dominant enough to be considered the best in the land.

USC
A popular choice -- since they are used to being in the title game. If they win out, certainly USC gets the nod (quality wins over Arkansas, Oregon, California, Notre Dame and UCLA), but that is HIGHLY unlikely. Look for losses against Cal and ND.

Arkansas
An SEC championship would put them in a good spot, but they still would fall short if Notre Dame wins out. Strength of schedule would make this argument seem ridiculous, but if you look to the common opponent in that situation (USC), Notre Dame has to go in ahead of the Razorbacks.

Notre Dame
Another popular choice. Michigan loss looks bad and will have difficulty placing them in a rematch with the Wolverines or in ahead of the Wolverines should Ohio State win. They definitely get the nod over Arkansas in that circumstance and would eliminate USC for the discussion (Arkansas eliminates Florida from that discussion as well). This would create an interesting conundrum ...

Wisconsin, Wake Forest, Boise State
Yeah, the records look good, but there isn't all that much substance there. Wisconsin will get screwed because the Big Ten can only send two to the BCS.

Rutgers
The Knights in Scarlet Armor. This is the only clear choice. Situational analysis: Ohio State beats Michigan. Notre Dame wins out (beating Army and USC) -- USC is out of the picture. Arkansas wins out (beating LSU, Miss. State and Florida) -- Florida is out of the picture. Rutgers wins out (beating West Virginia). We have four teams vying for the spot. Michigan, Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Rutgers. Michigan claims they beat Notre Dame so they deserve the spot. Notre Dame claims that they beat USC who beat Arkansas so they deserve the spot. Ohio State claims they beat Michigan and don't need to prove themselves again against them.

An undefeated Rutgers is the only clear answer.

The arguments brought against them:

1. The game will be a blowout for Ohio State -- fine, it's a blowout and Ohio State is the best team in the country. At least it will be definitive.

2. Rutgers is unproven -- give them a chance to prove themselves. Here it is; you want your measuring stick its right there.

Any other combination gives a team a shot, leaving equivolant teams complaining through the rest of bowl season (a la Oregon last year). Rutgers is the way to go.

Let the Madness Begin

As we approach the hype bonanza that will be Michigan vs. Ohio State, the BCS title picture is no clearer than it was weeks ago. Entering Saturday, it appeared that the Longhorns would have the inside track to Glendale to face the winner of UM-OSU. Enter Kansas State. Exit Texas. Same fate for Auburn vs. Georgia. And California vs. Arizona. And Florida vs. South Carolina ... no wait the Gamecocks choked on that one.

So now, the list of possible opponents for the Big Ten champion has changed. Will it be the Southern California Trojans, the Fighting Irish, the Razorbacks, or the Gators? Well, as fate would have it, Florida will play Arkansas, and Notre Dame will play Southern California.

Even so, there could be controversy. Some experts are projecting a close decision between Michigan and Ohio State, leading to a rematch in Glendale for the BCS Championship. I don't see this as a likely scenario, as the coaches will not vote this way, and the computer advantage over the one-loss teams that the loser of that game has held will be nullified.

Even still, there could be controversy. Should two of the four once-beaten title contenders win out, which one gets to go to the title game? I don't know. You don't know. Mark May certainly doesn't know. Thank you once again, BCS, for turning college football into figure skating.

Gerry's BCS Projections
BCS National Championship Game
Glendale, AZ (Jan. 8, 2007)
Michigan (12-0) vs. Notre Dame (11-1)
Prediction: Michigan thumped the Fighting Irish in September, thanks to plenty of turnovers. This won't happen a second time. Brady Quinn and the Irish offense move the ball somewhat effectively against a stout Michigan defense. However, the Irish front seven let Mike Hart run all day, opening the passing game for Chad Henne. Michigan 27 - Notre Dame 17

Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, LA (Jan. 3, 2007)
Arkansas (11-2) vs. West Virginia (11-1)
Prediction: It's easy to sell the Big East short based on their lack of competition throughout the season. Just last year, the Mountaineers faced SEC champion Georgia as a hefty underdog and pounded the stuffing out of the Dawgs. Steve Slaton is explosive. However, West Virginia's defense is very ordinary, and Arkansas is a well-rounded football team. Arkansas 31 - West Virginia 20

Orange Bowl
Miami, FL (Jan. 2, 2007)
Wake Forest (11-2) vs. Florida (11-2)
Prediction: This game will be closer than one would expect based on looking at the matchup. Wake Forest is actually pretty good. Florida is overrated. That said, this is still a mismatch. Florida 28 - Wake Forest 13

Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, AZ (Jan. 1, 2007)
Nebraska (10-3) vs. Boise State (12-0)
Prediction: Texas' reeling down the stretch opened the door for Nebraska to make their first BCS appearance since an embarrassing loss to Miami in the national championship game in the 2001 season. Boise State makes its first-ever BCS appearance, which brings tears to the eyes of the Fiesta Bowl committee ... not ones of joy. Jared Zabransky and Ian Johnson cut loose on the Huskers, shocking the college football world. Boise State 34 - Nebraska 24

Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA (Jan. 1, 2007)
Ohio State (11-1) vs. Southern California (10-2)
Prediction: This could well be the national championship matchup, rather than the Rose Bowl game. Southern California is strong on both sides of the ball, but are no match for Troy Smith, Tedd Ginn, and the rest of the Buckeye assassains. Ohio State 38 - Southern Cal 21

How I Came to this Conclusion:
1) Arkansas loses to LSU, defeats Mississippi State, and defeats Florida in SEC title game.
2) Florida runs regular-season table, but loses to Arkansas in SEC title game.
3) Notre Dame defeats Army and Southern California.
4) Michigan defeats Ohio State.
5) Ohio State loses to Michigan.
6) Southern California defeats Cal and UCLA, but loses to Notre Dame.
7) Boise State defeats Utah State and Nevada.
8) West Virginia defeats Rutgers and wins out. The Big East finishes in a three-way tie, but West Virginia gets the automatic bid by virtue of the highest BCS ranking.
9) Wake Forest loses to Virginia Tech, but defeats Maryland and Georgia Tech.
10) Nebraska defeats Colorado and Texas.

Selection Process
1) BCS title game selects #1 Michigan vs. #2 Notre Dame.
2) ACC champion Wake Forest to Orange Bowl
3) Pac-10 champion Southern California to Rose Bowl
4) SEC champion Arkansas to Sugar Bowl
5) Big XII champion Nebraska to Fiesta Bowl
6) Rose Bowl compensated for loss of Big Ten champion with first pick. They choose Ohio State to maintain the Big Ten-Pac-10 rivalry.
7) Sugar Bowl has second pick. They choose West Virginia over Florida and Boise State.
8) Orange Bowl has third pick. They choose Florida.
9) Fiesta Bowl has fourth pick. They must choose Boise State.

Congratulations Miami

That's right. Miami, my hat is off to you. You established yourself as the most thug school in the country, displacing reigning champ USC. In fact, college football has enough thuggery to put together a "Thug Rankings." ESPN has their Power 16 and their Bottom 10, so we over at CFBN figured "Why the hell not a Thug 8?" Here is a top 8 list that would make 50 Cent squeamish:

1. Miami
Brawling, shooting and group sex -- the U has some issues to address immediately. The Hurricanes have established carte blanche with the administration and can seemingly get away with whatever they want. If the players are angry on the field, they will pick a fight. If the players are out on the street, they will carry guns and knives. If the players are horny, they will rap about it. Larry Coker, you old fool, do something. And to the university administration, shame on you.

2. USC
Matt Leinart impregnates some chick from the women's basketball team and is then sighted wooing Paris Hilton and Jessica Simpson (no worries, I'm sure he'll be a devote parent). Reggie Bush steals money from a marketing agency and violates NCAA regulations while retaining his Heisman. LenDale White instigates a brawl in his first NFL practice, continuing his days as a spark in the powderkeg of the Trojan lockerroom. The alumns of USC are just adding to their storied program a la O.J. Simpson. I don't understand why this is happening. Haven't the teachings of Pete Carroll guests like Snoop Dawg sunk in yet?

3. Ohio State
I don't know who is worse -- the players or the fans. I could ramble on about Maurice and Co., but that's been played out. Let's talk about the fans. They are drunk, they are obnoxious, and they are violent. When they lose football games, they burn stuff. When they win football games, they burn stuff. If they don't like you, they will crap in your cooler (if you are lucky). Bowl games do not want them because they do travel in droves, are a public disturbance and are extremely cheap. They embody everything that is wrong with college football. I'm going to open up a shop in Columbus called "Flammable Furniture" and retire in style -- somewhere other than Ohio that is.

4. Colorado
Two words -- Katie Hnida. For those that are unfamiliar, Katie Hnida was a female walk-on kicker at Colorado (yes, just like in Necessary Roughness). Alright, she wasn't that good. She missed virtually every kick she took, but still she did not deserve what the Buffaloes did to her. After one practice, the Colorado football team group raped her. She transferred to New Mexico and then told her story. In response to this, Head Coach Gary Barnett simply replied, "She was a **nt. She wasn't a good football player anyway." Meanwhile, their student section is among the worst in the country (see Ohio State). They might suck this year, but Dan Hawkins is at least cleaning the program up.

5. Michigan State
The Spartans play with some sort of tribal pride that allows their emotions to get them into sticky situations. They planted their flag at the Notre Dame 35-yard line (the Irish did not respond back). However, they brought the house on Illinois for doing the same on the "S" at Spartan Stadium. I believe this raw emotion comes directly from their fearless leader, John L. Smith. He acts like a child on the sidelines, and in the pressroom, and probably in practice. The Spartans will have a revamping like Colorado when they finally can Smith this year.

6. Virginia Tech
Vick unto Vick. Virginia Tech has a reputation among college students as a rowdy, overly playful, alcoholic Disney. But thuggery? Come on, you boys are better than that. With the departure of Marcus Vick, the Hokies fall considerably on this list, but Marcus was enough to push Virginia Tech onto the thug list. Vick is documented as having numerous felonies brought against him (I believe rape and possession of a firearm top the list), but his actions in the bowl game have left a sour taste in this writer's mouth. Give it time and Tech might move off the thug list.

7. Florida International
We placed a lot of blame on Miami, as did everyone else in the media. I want to make something clear though: Miami did not instigate that fight. Florida International started that brawl. We expect more of Miami; they are an experienced program that should have not let that escalate. However, the blame for the brawl belongs to FIU.

8. South Carolina
The Gamecocks have their history of thuggish behavior. The most recent case came in Lou Holtz's last year as the head coach, when they instigated a bench-clearing brawl with instate-rival Clemson.

I'm not sure how long this installment will last, but I will take some feedback from our readers on their experiences with thuggish behavior. You have a story -- chime in on the comments board.

BCS Predictions

With the release of the first BCS Standings, here is my prediction for the BCS games this year:

BCS National Championship:
Ohio State (12-0) vs. West Virginia (12-0)
The rules state that the championship game will be between No. 1 and No. 2. This season, it will come down to the only two unbeatens in major conferences -- Ohio State and West Virginia. Ohio State will have taken down Michigan while West Virginia eliminated Louisville.
Prediction: Ohio State wins the national championship.

Rose Bowl:
Michigan (11-1) vs. USC (11-1)
The Rose Bowl is traditionally between the Big Ten champ and the Pac-10 champ. The Big Ten champ -- Ohio State -- will be playing in the title game, so the Rose Bowl is compensated with the first pick; they use this to take Michigan who will face off against the Pac-10 championship USC Trojans. Michigan will have one loss coming against the Buckeyes; USC will be perfect in conference, but will have a loss to Notre Dame.
Prediction: Michigan wins the Rose Bowl.

Sugar Bowl:
Florida (12-1) vs. Notre Dame (11-1)
The Sugar Bowl is hosted by the SEC conference. Therefore, Florida would represent the conference, and the Sugar Bowl committee would have the first pick among the at large teams; they will select Notre Dame. Florida will win out and beat Auburn in the SEC championship game; Notre Dame will win the rest of its schedule, including the final game against USC.
Prediction: Florida wins the Sugar Bowl.

Orange Bowl:
Clemson (11-2) vs. Auburn (11-2)
The Orange Bowl is hosted by the ACC conference. Therefore, Clemson would represent the conference, and the Orange Bowl committee would have the second pick among the at large teams; they will select Auburn. Clemson will have one more loss coming against Virginia Tech, but will win the ACC championship game. Auburn will win until the SEC championship game against Florida.
Prediction: Clemson wins the Orange Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl:
Texas (12-1) vs. Boise State (12-0)
The Fiesta Bowl is hosted by the Big XII conference. Therefore, Texas would represent the conference, and the Fiesta Bowl committee would be stuck with an automatic mid-major bid; they will have to select Boise State. Texas wins out, as does Boise State.
Prediction: Boise State wins the Fiesta Bowl.

Week 6 Games of Note

Top Three of the Week:
No. 11 Oregon at No. 17 California
Chris' Take: Oregon 35, California 17
Gerry's Take: Oregon 28, California 21

No. 13 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia
Chris' Take: Tennessee 42, Georgia 24
Gerry's Take: Tennessee 27, Georgia 23

GotW: No. 9 LSU at No. 6 Florida
Chris' Take: LSU 24, Florida 21
Gerry's Take: LSU 21, Florida 17

Calling the Upset:
No. 7 Texas at No. 16 Oklahoma
Chris' Take: Oklahoma 27, Texas 24
Gerry's Take: Texas 28, Oklahoma 14

Mismatch of the Week:
Bowling Green at No. 1 Ohio State
Chris' Take: Ohio State 45, Bowling Green 12
Gerry's Take: Ohio State 41, Bowling Green 10

Chris' Season Record: 18-7
Gerry's Season Record: 20-5

Week 4 Games of Note

Top Three of the Week:
Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State
Chris' Take: Ohio State 42, Penn State 17
Gerry's Take: Ohio State 33, Penn State 13

No. 24 Arizona State at No. 23 California
Chris' Take: California 45, Arizona State 38
Gerry's Take: Arizona State 41, California 34

GotW: No. 9 Notre Dame at Michigan State
Chris' Take: Notre Dame 24, Michigan State 14
Gerry's Take: Notre Dame 41, Michigan State 35

Calling the Upset:
Iowa State at No. 8 Texas
Chris' Take: Iowa State 27, Texas 24
Gerry's Take: Texas 56, Iowa State 13

Mismatch of the Week:
Buffalo at No. 3 Auburn
Chris' Take: Auburn 48, Buffalo 7
Gerry's Take: Auburn 63, Buffalo 0

Chris' Season Record: 11-4
Gerry's Season Record: 11-4

And then there were eight ...

After "Separation Saturday," there are only eight programs in this writer's eyes that are looking to a potential National Championship in January. It may be September, but here at CFBN, we are already looking to the title game. So, here is some analysis on the contenders:

1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Head Coach: Jim Tressel (Grade: A)
Quarterback: Troy Smith (Grade: A)
Top Talent: Ted Ginn, WR (Grade: A)
Eliminated: Texas
Dangers: Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State
Title Chances: Very High
They have the best offense in the country, and they are developing the best defense in the country. Jim Tressel is the best at what he does, and with Troy Smith, Ted Ginn, Anthony Gonzalez and company, his job is just getting easier. They will face a very one-dimensional Iowa team and a depleted Penn State. Their only concerns lie in the state of Michigan. The Spartans have shown that they can put points up with the best of them behind quarterback Drew Stanton, but the lack of depth and versatility will keep Michigan State from pulling off the upset. And that leaves the Buckeyes with one ... and that one will determine which team is going to the title game.
Predicted Finish: 12-0

2. USC Trojans
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (Grade: A)
Quarterback: J. D. Booty (Grade: B+)
Top Talent: D. Jarrett, WR (Grade: A)
Eliminated: Nebraska
Dangers: California, Oregon, Notre Dame
Title Chances: High
So the Pac-10 isn't as competitive as the other conferences, but it still can make this less sure for the Trojans than in years past. California was pitiful in their opener at Tennessee, but they can improve as the season progresses and give the Trojans a game. Meanwhile, Oregon looked pretty strong against Oklahoma. But the real test will come in their second to last game against Charlie Weis and the boys from South Bend. The epic from last year will push the Irish to play at USC's level, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Notre Dame walk out of the L.A. Coliseum having taken down USC.
Predicted Finish: 11-1

3. West Virginia Mountaineers
Head Coach: Rich Rodriguez (Grade: B)
Quarterback: Pat White (Grade: B)
Top Talent: Steve Slaton, HB (Grade: A-)
Eliminated: Maryland
Dangers: Louisville, Pittsburgh
Title Chances: High
It's all about the schedule. With a cupcake schedule, Pat White and Steve Slaton look capable of running the table in the Big East, but they will need to play great against Pittsburgh, and especially great against Louisville. I give the Mountaineers a loss this season because their secondary is more than susceptible to a good passing quarterback. Louisville's Brian Brohm is a prime example of such, as is Pitt's Tyler Palko. Take your pick, one of them takes down West Virginia.
Predicted Finish: 11-1

4. Louisville Cardinals
Head Coach: Bobby Petrino (Grade: A-)
Quarterback: Brian Brohm (Grade: A-)
Top Talent: G. Stripling, HB (Grade: B-)
Eliminated: Miami
Dangers: Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Title Chances: Moderate
Dangerous. Very Dangerous. I think the game against Miami was an eye-opener for the rest of the college football world, and the message was simple: Louisville is deadly. Brian Brohm is a legitimate Heisman quarterback, and George Stripling is a xerox of Michael Bush. They will handle Pittsburgh with ease, but will have some difficulty catching up with West Virginia's backs.
Predicted Finish: 11-1

5. Auburn Tigers
Head Coach: T. Tuberville (Grade: B+)
Quarterback: Brandon Cox (Grade: B-)
Top Talent: Kenny Irons, HB (Grade: B+)
Eliminated: LSU
Dangers: Florida, Georgia
Title Chances: Moderate
Welcome to the hubris of the SEC. Auburn is a solid team that would run away with practically any other conference, but the SEC is just too deep. Look for either Florida or Georgia to sink the Tigers at some point in the season and for an SEC Championship loss. I'm not going to say who is going to deal the lethal blows, but in a conference featuring Auburn, LSU, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee, along with Alabama, Arkansas and South Carolina, it is just inevitable.
Predicted Finish: 11-2

6. Michigan Wolverines
Head Coach: Lloyd Carr (Grade: B)
Quarterback: Chad Henne (Grade: C+)
Top Talent: Leon Hart, HB (Grade: B)
Eliminated: Notre Dame
Dangers: Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
Title Chances: Low
Anyone who has to face this year's Ohio State team has a low chance of seeing an undefeated season. Lloyd Carr's boys looked fantastic against Notre Dame in the 47-21 win in South Bend, but don't lose sight of what Michigan is coming off of. One win will not carry them into January, and in order to keep their dreams alive, they need Chad Henne to continue to play like he did yesterday.
Predicted Finish: 11-1

7. Florida Gators
Head Coach: Urban Meyer (Grade: A-)
Quarterback: Chris Leak (Grade: B+)
Top Talent: Percy Harvin, WR (Grade: C+)
Eliminated: Tennessee
Dangers: Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, LSU
Title Chances: Low
See the fate of Auburn and just up the chances of losing. Not only are the Gators a weaker team than Auburn, they face a tougher schedule, including matches against Auburn, Florida State, Georgia and LSU following the victory over the Volunteers. Ouch! Urban will get another taste of why coaching Florida isn't quite the same as coaching Utah.
Predicted Finish: 11-2

8. Georgia Bulldogs
Head Coach: Mark Richt (Grade: C)
Quarterback: M. Stafford (Grade: C+)
Top Talent: Danny Ware, HB (Grade: C+)
Eliminated: South Carolina
Dangers: Auburn, Florida, Tennessee
Title Chances: Very Low
Let's face it, they are the fifth-best team in the SEC and are just waiting to get knocked from the title race. Matthew Stafford is too young and too inexperienced to lead the Bulldogs to a title, while Mark Richt is not a good enough coach to outduel Tommy Tuberville, Urban Meyer or Phillip Fulmer. See you in a nice non-BCS match-up.
Predicted Finish: 9-3

Big Ones

ESPN is calling them the "Magnificent 7." Here at CFBN, we just refer to them as "The Big Ones." They happen every week, but so many of them at once -- I just need to sit down for a minute to contemplate the amount of awesomeness packed into one weekend. Here is what you need to know this weekend:

No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 8 Michigan
Notre Dame playmaker: Brady Quinn, QB
Michigan playmaker: Leon Hart, HB
What to look for in this one ... Can Notre Dame stop the Michigan running game? Can Michigan stop the Notre Dame passing game? Can either team keep their emotions in check?
Let's be honest folks. If Notre Dame manages to fend off a ruthless Michigan team, they should go unscathed into Los Angeles in November. Two big wins and Notre Dame is looking at a National Championship appearance. With Charlie Weis at the helm, Irish fans are believing in their program.
Predicted Winner: Notre Dame

No. 3 USC vs. No. 17 Nebraska
USC playmaker: Dwayne Jarrett, WR
Nebraska playmaker: Zac Taylor, QB
What to look for in this one ... Can Nebraska keep this one close in L.A.? Is John David Booty the next Matt Leinart? Will the Trojan Empire finally show some wear?
Not to be disrespectful to the Cornhuskers, but this is not a marquee match-up. USC is just too damn good. Nebraska just needs to pray that they can keep this one close and not lose too much of the credit they have worked so hard to gain.
Predicted Winner: USC

No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 5 LSU
Auburn playmaker: Kenny Irons, HB
LSU playmaker: JeMarcus Russell, QB
What to look for in this one ... SEC defensive speed -- is it enough to slow down Irons and Russell? Basically, who will win the SEC this year?
This is the battle royal of the weekend. LSU gave Auburn the fight of their lives last year in Baton Rouge. With this game being played in Alabama, the tables are turned. Kenny Irons is a much improved back from last season, and Brandon Cox is looking as good as ever.
Predicted Winner: Auburn

No. 6 Florida vs. No. 14 Tennessee
Florida playmaker: Chris Leak, QB
Tennessee playmaker: Erik Ainge, QB
What to look for in this one ... Can Neyland Stadium disrupt a seemingly flawless Chris Leak? Will Erik Ainge continue his Heisman campaign against the Gators?
Both of these teams look indominable. Tennessee thrashed California two weeks ago. Florida has been unbelievable since the second quarter of the first game. Both quarterbacks come into the game with 7 touchdowns under their belt. This one could be an aerial battle for the ages.
Predicted Winner: Florida

No. 10 Louisville vs. No. 19 Miami
Louisville playmaker: Brian Brohm, QB
Miami playmaker: Greg Olsen, TE
What to look for in this one ... Is this the final straw for Larry Coker with the Hurricanes? Is Louisville still a contender without Michael Bush?
Louisville's running game hasn't suffered too badly from the loss of Michael Bush, but I think that is in large part due to their opposition thus far. Miami will force Brohm to go to the air, and with the impressive defensive backs that the Hurricanes have, this could prove quite deadly for the Cardinals.
Predicted Winner: Miami

No. 13 Oregon vs. No. 18 Oklahoma
Oregon playmaker: Jonathan Stewart, HB
Oklahoma playmaker: Adrian Peterson, HB
What to look for in this one ... A heated rematch from last year's Holiday Bowl. Can Peterson carry Oklahoma past its biggest challenge until the Red River Classic? Is Oregon a Pac-10 contender?
Two teams battling for the national spotlight -- it doesn't get any better than this. Oregon and Oklahoma are both demanding the respect of the college football world, and only one of them will walk away with it.
Predicted Winner: Oregon

No. 21 TCU vs. Texas Tech
TCU playmaker: Jeff Ballard, QB
Texas Tech playmaker: Graham Harrell, QB
What to look for in this one ... Is TCU a BCS-caliber team? Is the gap between majors and mid-majors as wide as once perceived?
An unfamiliar in-state rivalry between two teams that don't lose all that often. Texas Tech and TCU both have very explosive offenses, but I think the athletes that Texas Tech has on the offensive and defensive lines are going to make the difference; Harrell will simply have more time to make the big plays, and that will be the downfall of TCU's BCS run this season.
Predicted Winner: Texas Tech

The BCS Picture (September 10)

It's incredibly early to be talking about this, but let's do it anyway. The selection process used by the BCS is complicated, but here's the gist of it, which will work in most scenarios.

1) The top 2 teams in the BCS formula go to the title game.
2) The conference champions with automatic tie-ins are placed in their respective bowls (see below).
3) Should either of those teams in the title game be a conference champion with an automatic bowl tie-in, then the bowl who lost the tied-in team shall choose first. (For example, the ACC has a tie-in with the Orange Bowl. If Florida State were to finish in the top 2 of the BCS and win the ACC, then the Orange Bowl would choose from the remaining pool first to replace the vacancy left by Florida State.)
4) Selection for January 2007 follows the following order: Sugar-Orange-Fiesta.

Automatic Tie-Ins by Conference
Rose Bowl: Big Ten champion vs. Pac-10 champion
Sugar Bowl: SEC champion
Orange Bowl: ACC champion
Fiesta Bowl: Big XII champion

With all of those logistics out of the way, here's my projection of the BCS bowls based on what has happened thus far:

Sugar Bowl
LSU vs. Miami (Fla.)

Orange Bowl
Florida State vs. Louisville

Fiesta Bowl
Texas vs. Boise State

Rose Bowl
USC vs. Auburn

BCS Title Game
#2 Notre Dame vs. #1 Ohio State

Let me explain how I came to this:
1) The BCS title game is obvious. I have Ohio State and Notre Dame finishing as the top 2 teams.
2) I have USC (Pac-10), Texas (Big XII), Florida State (ACC), LSU (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), and Louisville (Big East) winning their respective conferences.
3) The Rose Bowl lost Ohio State to the national championship game, so they received first choice. Their choices were Boise State (I have the Broncos running the table), Louisville (Big East champion), and whatever at-large teams are eligible at season's end. Based on the Rose Bowl's long-declared desire for East vs. West, I chose Auburn as the second representative.
4) The Sugar Bowl has the second pick, and I chose Miami (Fla.), as the Sugar Bowl likes to keep Southern ties in its game.
5) The Orange Bowl has the third pick, and must choose either Boise State or Louisville, since both are automatic qualifiers. Concerned about a potential blowout (for the record, I actually believe Boise State might beat Florida State ... but this is not "conventional wisdom"), I believe the Orange Bowl would likely choose Louisville over Boise State.
6) The Fiesta Bowl is forced to take Boise State.

Oregon State vs. Boise State

Tonight's match-up between the Broncos and the Beavers will be a true test of Boise State's resolve. As many of you know, Boise State Head Coach Dan Hawkins left for Colorado after the bowl season last year, and now the team is under the direction of former offensive coordinator Chris Petersen.

Boise State looked sharp in their home opener against Sacramento State, but a victory over a I-AA opponent isn't anything to bet the farm on (although Dan Hawkins' Colorado probably wishes he could claim such a victory in the first week).

Although there is reason to doubt, I like Boise State's chances in this one, and I will tell you why. The offensive prowess that established Boise State in the first place is still in Idaho. Chris Petersen showed that the offense was not going to struggle this year, by posting 45 points last week.

Boise State is also playing the Beavers at home. This makes a big difference. The legendary "Smurf Turf" of Boise is actually quite intimidating, where the Broncos have a staggering winning percentage.

Boise State also has their veteran quarterback returning in Jared Zabransky. I think that if he can avoid turnovers Boise State will win this game.

The game will be aired tonight at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN.

Week 2 Games of Note

Top Three of the Week:
#18 Oregon (1-0) at #25 Fresno State (1-0)
Chris' Take: Oregon 42, Fresno State 31
Gerry's Take: Oregon 38, Fresno State 31

#15 Penn State (1-0) at #4 Notre Dame (1-0)
Chris' Take: Notre Dame 27, Penn State 24
Gerry's Take: Notre Dame 34, Penn State 20

GotW: #1 Ohio State (1-0) at #2 Texas (1-0)
Chris' Take: Ohio State 24, Texas 17
Gerry's Take: Texas 31, Ohio State 24

Calling the Upset:
Nevada (0-1) at Arizona State (1-0)
Chris' Take: Nevada 23, Arizona State 20
Gerry's Take: Nevada 35, Arizona State 28

Mismatch of the Week:
Eastern Washington (I-AA) at #8 West Virginia (1-0)
Chris' Take: West Virginia 45, Eastern Washington 7
Gerry's Take: West Virginia 56, Eastern Washington 3

Chris' Season Record: 3-2
Gerry's Season Record: 5-0

Not So Fast My Friend

As we all know, Lee Corso's blessing is usually a sign of bad things to come. Unfortunately for the California Golden Bears, his prediction for them to win the National Championship resulted in an early season dismissal from the elite of college football.

On Saturday, the Tennessee Volunteers had an offensive resurgance in Knoxville, with a little help from an old friend, David Cutcliffe. Vols' QB Erik Ainge looked like a Heisman candidate, throwing for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns in the embarrassing victory over the highly touted Golden Bears.

What we didn't know was that Kirk Herbstreit was equally capable of delivering the kiss of death. Immediately preceeding Corso's California selection, Herbstreit named Miami as the preseason favorite to win the title this year. Marked as the top team in "Herbie's eyes," Florida State did their best to chop them down to size with a victory at Miami.

So, here is the lesson, kiddies. Don't listen to ESPN. They hurt national contenders and cause cancer (probably). Corso's Cal, and Herbstreit's Miami are down the drain, so let's see who they mark next for college football death.

Week 1 Roundup

This may be premature considering that Florida State-Miami will be played tomorrow, but here's a quick breakdown of what happened in Week 1 of college football.

	1. Notre Dame	14
	24. Georgia Tech	10

Notre Dame hardly looked like the best team in the country in the first half last night. The Georgia Tech blitz schemes consistently beat the highly touted Irish offensive line, Brady Quinn rushed his deliveries and missed his targets often, and the vaunted Irish offense as a whole sputtered throughout much of the half. But trailing in a hostile environment, Notre Dame pulled together and fought its way to a gutsy 14-10 victory.

Notre Dame RB Darius Walker saved this game for the Irish, rushing for 99 yards on 24 carries (4.5 yards/carry). He didn't rack up enormous statistics, but Walker's carries opened up Georgia Tech's defense in the second half, allowing Notre Dame both to score the go-ahead touchdown and to put together long drives to keep Reggie Ball and Calvin Johnson off of the field.

And even though the Jackets lost, they should be encouraged by their performance, especially on the defensive side of the ball. If they could shut down Brady Quinn and Charlie Weis' offense, then they should fare well in ACC play. Don't be surprised if the Yellow Jackets manage to sneak their way into the conference championship game this year.

	8. California	18
	22. Tennessee	35

Lee Corso predicted yesterday that the California Golden Bears would reach the BCS National Championship game at the end of this season. That should have been the beginning of handwringing and panicking for Cal fans. The Bears looked completely overmatched by a Tennessee football team out to prove that last year was a fluke. The return of offensive coordinator David Cutcliffe seemed to lift the Vols' offense, which demoralized a California squad that led the Pac-10 in scoring defense in 2005 (21.17 ppg allowed). Tennessee QB Erik Ainge went 11-for-17 for 291 yards and 4 touchdowns. WR Robert Meachem caught 5 of those passes for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Either California is grossly overrated, or Tennessee has begun to realize its potential. Personally, I believe both may pan out to be true, which means good times might be returning to Rocky Top in 2006.

	UAB	17
	15. Oklahoma	24

Speaking of overrated, for the second straight year the Sooners looked terrible against a mid-major school to start the season. This isn't all Rhett Bomar's fault. Oklahoma has been in decline for the past few years. After several seasons of dominance in the Red River shootout rivalry, Big XII supremacy is now the exclusive property of the Texas Longhorns. The Sooners will lose at least three football games this year.

	Montana State (I-AA)	19
	Colorado	10

I'm willing to bet that Dan Hawkins woke up this morning with nostalgic thoughts about a little town in Idaho called Boise. Hawkins' name had come up several times in recent years as a potential candidate to fill coaching vacancies, most notably at Notre Dame. But finally he was lured away by Colorado, a program whose recent transgressions put some of Miami's notorious misdeeds to shame. Losing at home to a Division I-AA school is no way to start the healing, Coach.

Football helmet images courtesy of The Helmet Project