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Sunday, September 10, 2006

The BCS Picture (September 10)

It's incredibly early to be talking about this, but let's do it anyway. The selection process used by the BCS is complicated, but here's the gist of it, which will work in most scenarios.

1) The top 2 teams in the BCS formula go to the title game.
2) The conference champions with automatic tie-ins are placed in their respective bowls (see below).
3) Should either of those teams in the title game be a conference champion with an automatic bowl tie-in, then the bowl who lost the tied-in team shall choose first. (For example, the ACC has a tie-in with the Orange Bowl. If Florida State were to finish in the top 2 of the BCS and win the ACC, then the Orange Bowl would choose from the remaining pool first to replace the vacancy left by Florida State.)
4) Selection for January 2007 follows the following order: Sugar-Orange-Fiesta.

Automatic Tie-Ins by Conference
Rose Bowl: Big Ten champion vs. Pac-10 champion
Sugar Bowl: SEC champion
Orange Bowl: ACC champion
Fiesta Bowl: Big XII champion

With all of those logistics out of the way, here's my projection of the BCS bowls based on what has happened thus far:

Sugar Bowl
LSU vs. Miami (Fla.)

Orange Bowl
Florida State vs. Louisville

Fiesta Bowl
Texas vs. Boise State

Rose Bowl
USC vs. Auburn

BCS Title Game
#2 Notre Dame vs. #1 Ohio State

Let me explain how I came to this:
1) The BCS title game is obvious. I have Ohio State and Notre Dame finishing as the top 2 teams.
2) I have USC (Pac-10), Texas (Big XII), Florida State (ACC), LSU (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), and Louisville (Big East) winning their respective conferences.
3) The Rose Bowl lost Ohio State to the national championship game, so they received first choice. Their choices were Boise State (I have the Broncos running the table), Louisville (Big East champion), and whatever at-large teams are eligible at season's end. Based on the Rose Bowl's long-declared desire for East vs. West, I chose Auburn as the second representative.
4) The Sugar Bowl has the second pick, and I chose Miami (Fla.), as the Sugar Bowl likes to keep Southern ties in its game.
5) The Orange Bowl has the third pick, and must choose either Boise State or Louisville, since both are automatic qualifiers. Concerned about a potential blowout (for the record, I actually believe Boise State might beat Florida State ... but this is not "conventional wisdom"), I believe the Orange Bowl would likely choose Louisville over Boise State.
6) The Fiesta Bowl is forced to take Boise State.

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