What's the Solution?

Once again, the build-up to college football's premier event is mired in controversy. Hawai'i (12-0), the nation's only unbeaten team, is not in the title discussion thanks to a weak schedule. That said, Ohio State (11-1) and Kansas (11-1) are the nation's only once-beaten teams. Both teams played weak schedules, yet the Buckeyes are ranked number one in the BCS and the Jayhawks are not in the discussion. LSU (11-2) was beaten twice, but ranks ahead of Kansas. Missouri (11-2) also lost twice, both times to twice-beaten Oklahoma (11-2). Neither of these teams is in the title game and the former is actually not even in a BCS bowl. However, thrice-beaten Illinois (9-3) is thanks to (a) traditional Big Ten ties with the Rose Bowl and (b) a BCS rule that does not allow more than two teams from one conference to reach a BCS bowl (Oklahoma and Kansas are already in, so Missouri is out). Then there's Georgia (10-2), Southern California (10-2), Arizona State (10-2) ... I could go on but you get the point. This is a colossal mess!

This brings me to the title of my article ... what's the solution? I'd like to entertain a few possibilities here, and then open it up to you folks to tell me which idea you like the best.

1) The BCS plus one system: This seems to be the direction college football is headed, so let's start here. This system would pit the four "best" teams in college football in a final four of sorts - a two-round playoff consisting of two semifinal matches and a final between the two winners. Essentially, this system would push the controversy from "Who's number two" to "Who's number four." Try the scenario out for 2007, as an example.

Semifinal #1: Ohio State (11-1) vs. Oklahoma (11-2)
Semifinal #2: LSU (11-2) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2)

Wait, isn't that the same Virginia Tech that LSU pasted 48-7? You bet! Are the Hokies more deserving than the Georgia Bulldogs? Well, the Hokies did win the ACC, though most would agree the third-best team in the SEC is probably better than the best team in the ACC. What about Missouri? The Tigers were the #1 team in the nation one day before the bowl selections came out. What about undefeated Hawaii? Southern California? Kansas? Arizona State?

At least in 2007, the plus one format would not have solved much in the way of controversy.

2) Playoff: This seems to be the people's choice in the world of college football, so let's explore this one next. Protecting academic interests aside, the first question becomes, "How many teams should be invited," followed by, "by what method should selection be done?" If you just took the top 8 teams based on the AP poll or BCS standings as one method, both would leave Hawai'i (#10 AP/#10 BCS) out of the discussion. As you might guess, this would not go over well.

BCS Top 8
#1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. #8 Kansas (11-1)
#4 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. #5 Georgia (10-2)

#2 LSU (11-2) vs. #7 USC (10-2) (finally ... just 3 years too late)
#3 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #6 Missouri (11-2)

Well, you could expand to the top 16 teams. You'd probably be able to safely assume that the best team in the country is in the pool if you go that deep. However, you'd be including 3 and perhaps even 4-loss teams into the title discussion at this point, which would make traditionalists bemoan the trivialization of the regular-season schedule.

BCS Top 16
#1 Ohio State (11-1) vs. #16 Tennessee (9-4) (#16 seeds never win in NCAA basketball, but here it might actually happen)
#8 Kansas (11-1) vs. #9 West Virginia (10-2)

#4 Oklahoma (11-2) vs. #13 Illinois (9-3) (no matter which system, Zooker winds up in a matchup he can't win)
#5 Georgia (10-2) vs. #12 Florida (9-3)

#2 LSU (11-2) vs. #15 Clemson (9-3)
#7 USC (10-2) vs. #10 Hawai'i (12-0)

#3 Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. #14 Boston College (10-3) (gee this looks familiar)
#6 Missouri (11-2) vs. #11 Arizona State (10-2)

Now, playoff proponents would argue that you could still have bowl games in addition to the bracket. Yeah ... right. I defy you to look at the other available teams and create more than two or three even remotely interesting matchups. Wisconsin vs. Texas. Okay, I'm out of ideas. Your turn.

3) Conference-based system: I don't know if you noticed, but in the above 16-team system, 15 were from the Big Six conferences, with the only exception being undefeated Hawai'i. Is 9-4 Tennessee more deserving than 10-2 BYU? I don't know. However, I do know that one of the arguments for a playoff system in the first place is to give teams outside the Big Six a chance at a title run. Therefore, there at least needs to be a suggestion here that affords that opportunity. One way would be to have automatic and at-large berths, similar to the NCAA basketball model. Here's the problem: there are 11 Div-IA (forget the new "labels" for the divisions I'm always going to say I-A and I-AA) conferences plus the four independents. So, even in a 16-team tournament, you'd only have 5 at-large slots, which I will fill with the five highest remaining teams in the BCS standings. Just for fun, let me make up more rules: conference winners from the Big Six are ranked 1-6. I thought about making conference winners 1-11, but then the #1 team winds up playing someone like Florida while the #7 gets Central Michigan. That doesn't sound fair, either. Here's how that might play out this year:

Conference Tournament
#1 Ohio State (11-1, Big Ten champion) vs. #16 Florida Atlantic (7-5, Sun Belt champion)
#8 Georgia (11-2, SEC at-large) vs. #9 Missouri (11-2, Big XII at-large)

#4 Oklahoma (11-2, Big XII champion) vs. #13 Brigham Young (10-2, Mountain West champion)
#5 Southern California (10-2, Pac-10 champion) vs. #12 Florida (9-3, SEC at-large)

#2 LSU (11-2, SEC champion) vs. #15 Central Michigan (8-5, MAC champion)
#7 Hawai'i (12-0, WAC champion) vs. #10 Kansas (11-1, Big XII at-large)

#3 Virginia Tech (11-2, ACC champion) vs. #14 Central Florida (10-3, C-USA champion)
#6 West Virginia (10-2 Big East champion) vs. #11 Arizona State (10-2, Pac-10 at-large)

4) Conference realignment: The most drastic of possible changes, if done properly this could be the most beneficial. Realistically, this is an infeasible suggestion, but one that is fun to entertain. If all of college football could be realigned into 8, 10, or even 12 evenly distributed conferences in terms of both number of schools and strength of programs, then strength of schedule, conference strength, and qualification for a playoff tournament could be normalized. Perhaps in the coming days, we'll entertain one such scenario to see if it's at all possible, but for right now let's just list it as a dream.

5) Old System: The BCS is a failure. One possible alternative to the current system is to go back to the way things were. Sure, there was no "national championship game," but it hardly seems like there's one now, either. At least the old system was honest to itself.

6) Crazy Go Nuts: Shorten the college football schedule back to 11 games for everyone and have a 32 or even 64-team tournament. Insane you say? Well, 32 of the 64 would wind up playing one fewer game than they do now (since half the field will lose and they'd virtually all have been selected for the 32 bowls), 16 more would play the same, 8 more would play one more, four would play two more, two would play three more. If you cut it back to 32 teams, then subtract one more game for everyone. It's really not that bad. Let's take a look, (Yes, I'm really going to do it.) Now, this would require a selection committee and whatnot, but for now I'm just going to place teams based on region as much as possible, since I think it will be more interesting that way. If a team has conference ties to a conference that are at odds with regional ties (e.g. South Florida in East vs. South), then the region less represented was chosen.

NCAA Basketball-style Tournament
EAST
#1 Virginia Tech vs. #16 NC State
#8 Wake Forest vs. #9 Florida State

#4 Virginia vs. #13 Rutgers
#5 South Florida vs. #12 Maryland

#2 West Virginia vs. #15 Navy
#7 Connecticut vs. #10 Central Florida

#3 Boston College vs. #14 Louisville
#6 Cincinnati vs. #11 Georgia Tech

SOUTH
#1 LSU vs. #16 Florida Atlantic
#8 Arkansas vs. #9 Kentucky

#4 Clemson vs. #13 Alabama
#5 Tennessee vs. #12 South Carolina

#2 Georgia vs. #15 TCU
#7 Auburn vs. #10 Texas A&M

#3 Florida vs. #14 Troy
#6 Texas vs. #11 Mississippi State

MIDWEST
#1 Ohio State vs. #16 Vanderbilt
#8 Michigan vs. #9 Michigan State

#4 Kansas vs. #13 Tulsa
#5 Illinois vs. #12 Purdue

#2 Oklahoma vs. #15 Indiana
#7 Penn State vs. #10 Texas Tech

#3 Missouri vs. #14 Nebraska
#6 Wisconsin vs. #11 Oklahoma State

WEST
#1 Southern California vs. #16 Washington State
#8 Air Force vs. #9 Utah

#4 Brigham Young vs. #13 New Mexico
#5 Boise State vs. #12 Colorado

#2 Hawai'i vs. #15 Arizona
#7 Oregon State vs. #10 UCLA

#3 Arizona State vs. #14 Fresno State
#6 Oregon vs. #11 California

Ramifications of Oregon, Oklahoma Losses

If the season were to end today, LSU would face Kansas for the national championship, and most people would have no problem with that. After all, Kansas is the only legitimate undefeated team (sorry Hawaii, but your signature victory this year over 6-4 Fresno State doesn't do it for me) and LSU is the strongest of the once-beaten squads. However, odds are pretty good that Kansas will trip up either against Missouri or in the Big XII title game, leaving the BCS door wide open again.
Let's entertain the possibility of one or both of the top two teams losing a game in the next couple of weeks. Who would replace them in the championship picture?

1) Missouri (10-1): I could live with this. If the Tigers defeat Kansas and win the Big XII title, it would be hard to discredit their accomplishments. Of course, a Missouri-LSU championship game would be awfully confusing ... Tigers, Tigers everywhere!

2) West Virginia (9-1): If the Mountaineers advance to the title game, with a nonconference schedule consisting of Western Michigan, Marshall, Maryland, East Carolina, and Mississippi State, this would only further bolster my argument from earlier this year. How could this team be ranked ahead of Ohio State or Arizona State? Granted, I'm not impressed with these two teams' out-of-conference schedules, either, but at least their in-conference schedule isn't laughable. I don't care how many Big East teams were ranked at some point this year ... this conference isn't very good. The Top 25 has been a revolving door, anyway. The entire Big East conference has been padding its record and reputation by playing mediocre out-of-conference games, and the media is rewarding them for it. It's thinking like that of Jason Whitlock, who said at the beginning of last year that he was ranking West Virginia #1 because they were the most likely to run the table, that makes the current system so defective.
West Virginia needs to be the sacrificial lamb that saves college football. Vote them out, fellas.

3) Ohio State (11-1): The Big Ten isn't that strong this year, but the Buckeyes almost ran the gauntlet, losing narrowly to a very strong Illinois squad. However, it is unlikely West Virginia will lose to Connecticut or Pittsburgh, so the Buckeyes may have to settle for the Rose Bowl.

4) Arizona State (10-1): The Sun Devils have a huge game against Southern California coming up. Victory over the Trojans might give this program a lift in the polls. ASU was leading WVU in the computer rankings going into this week, so if they could narrow the game in the polls, they might leapfrog the Mountaineers.

Of the four major contenders to supplant LSU or Kansas, three of them would qualify as legitimate, but it is the illegitimate contender who has the best shot at New Orleans. Once again, the BCS is starting to smell rotten as we approach December.

Scheduling: A Disturbing Trend

Like all of you, nothing gets my blood running faster than a Saturday slate full of compelling gridiron matchups. Lately, that means Notre Dame's early schedule, followed by conference play. After early October, Notre Dame doesn't play anybody (except on even years where they play Southern California in November), and conference big boys are scheduling fewer interesting interconference matchups each year. I've listed the nonconference schedules of what I consider the upper half of each conference.

Atlantic Coast Conference
Boston College: Army, UMass, Bowling Green, Notre Dame
Clemson: Lousiana-Monroe, Furman, Central Michigan, South Carolina
Florida State: UAB, Colorado, Alabama, Florida
Georgia Tech: Notre Dame, Samford, Army, Georgia
Miami: Marshall, Oklahoma, Florida International, Texas A&M
Virginia Tech: ECU, LSU, Ohio, William & Mary

Top 5 Matchups:
1) Virginia Tech vs. LSU
2) Florida State vs. Florida
3) Miami vs. Oklahoma
4) Florida State vs. Alabama
5) Georgia Tech vs. Notre Dame

Verdict: Half of these schools (FSU, GT, Miami) have scheduled two marquee games. A lot of these other games are not only not marquee, but are downright uninteresting. Clemson vs. Furman? Virginia Tech vs. William & Mary? Sign me up!

Big East Conference
Louisville: Murray State, Middle Tennessee, Kentucky, Utah, NC State
Pittsburgh: Eastern Michigan, Grambling State, Michigan State, Virginia, Navy
Rutgers: Buffalo, Navy, Norfolk State, Maryland, Army
West Virginia: Western Michigan, Marshall, Maryland, East Carolina, Mississippi State

Top 5 Matchups
1) West Virginia vs. Maryland
2) Louisville vs. NC State
3) Louisville vs. Kentucky
4) Pittsburgh vs. Virginia
5) Rutgers vs. Maryland

Verdict: This is utterly embarrassing. No Big East team should be considered for national championship contention (are you listening, West Virginia?) until these schools schedule someone of note outside conference play. These guys are lucky Notre Dame athletic director Kevin White has pledged to play this conference three games per year starting in 2009.

Big Ten Conference
Iowa: NIU, Syracuse, Iowa State, Western Michigan
Michigan: Appalachian State, Oregon, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan
Ohio State: Youngstown State, Akron, Washington, Kent State
Penn State: Florida International, Notre Dame, Buffalo, Temple
Wisconsin: Washington State, UNLV, The Citadel, Northern Illinois

Top 5 Matchups
1) Michigan vs. Notre Dame
2) Penn State vs. Notre Dame
3) Michigan vs. Oregon
4) Ohio State vs. Washington
5) Wisconsin vs. Washington State

Verdict: Remove Notre Dame from the equation and these out-of-conference matchups look very ordinary. Michigan vs. Oregon should be fun. Ohio State can't be faulted for how badly Washington has fallen, but this game could drive one of the final nails into Tyrone Willingham's coffin.

Big XII Conference
Colorado: Colorado State, Arizona State, Florida State, Miami (OH)
Nebraska: Nevada, Wake Forest, Southern California, Ball State
Oklahoma: North Texas, Miami, Utah State, Tulsa
Texas: Arkansas State, TCU, UCF, Rice
Texas A&M: Montana State, Fresno State, Louisiana-Monroe, Miami
Texas Tech: SMU, UTEP, Rice, Northwestern State

Top 5 Matchups
1) Nebraska vs. Southern California
2) Oklahoma vs. Miami
3) Texas A&M vs. Miami
4) Nebraska vs. Wake Forest
5) Colorado vs. Florida State

Verdict: An unusually heavy schedule for Nebraska makes this top 5 interesting. Nebraska will probably keep it closer with the Trojans than folks are expecting, but that still doesn't look like a winnable game for the Cornhuskers. Colorado vs. Florida State could be funny.

Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona State: San Jose State, Colorado, San Diego State
California: Tennessee, Colorado State, Louisiana Tech
Oregon: Houston, Michigan, Fresno State
UCLA: BYU, Utah, Notre Dame
Southern California: Idaho, Nebraska, Notre Dame

Top 5 Matchups
1) Southern California vs. Notre Dame
2) Southern California vs. Nebraska
3) California vs. Tennessee
4) UCLA vs. Notre Dame
5) Oregon vs. Michigan

Verdict: Say what you want about USC, but they don't build a light schedule ever. Notre Dame and Nebraska may be their two toughest games in 2007, and they're both out of conference. California will be looking for revenge against Tennessee, as will UCLA against Notre Dame.

Southeastern Conference
Alabama: Western Carolina, Florida State, Houston, Louisiana-Monroe
Arkansas: Troy, North Texas, UT-Chattanooga, Florida International
Florida: Western Kentucky, Troy, Florida Atlantic, Florida State
LSU: Virginia Tech, Middle Tennessee, Tulane, Louisiana Tech
Georgia: Oklahoma State, Western Carolina, Troy, Georgia Tech
Tennessee: California, Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette

Top 5 Matchups
1) LSU vs. Virginia Tech
2) Florida vs. Florida State
3) Tennessee vs. California
4) Alabama vs. Florida State
5) Georgia vs. Georgia Tech

Verdict: A few of these games should be interesting, as listed above. Most of them are not. The SEC may be "the toughest conference in college football," but their out-of-conference schedule is far from it. On the bright side, it's not as bad as the Big East's.

Fortunately, there are still some good intersectional football games left in the modern college football landscape. That said, probably half of them are due to longstanding rivalries, like Notre Dame vs. Southern California, Florida vs. Florida State, Georgia vs. Georgia Tech and the like. As long as those rivalries stay alive (c.f. Penn State vs. Pitt), we'll at least have some interesting games outside conference play. But until teams are dinged for playing doormats, this trend will only get worse.

Weis vs. Willingham

In a recent article in the San Jose Mercury News, author Jon Wilner builds the argument that if Notre Dame dismissed Tyrone Willingham for losing badly against elite teams, then the same standard should be held to Charlie Weis. He goes so far as to say that should Notre Dame not tighten the screws on Weis in 2007 -- pending lopsided defeats against foes like USC and Michigan -- then it would appear to be racially charged.

"Notre Dame" and "racist" are two phrases that have been coupled together with some regularity since the dismissal of Willingham, so this warrants some discussion. So let me make it clear: Notre Dame's termination of Willingham was a business decision, not an act of racism. Furthermore, dismissal of Weis after next season would be a poor business decision, and that is why Wilner is somewhat misguided. Allow me to explain before you either write me off or nominate me for a Pulitzer (depending on your stake in the debate).

First of all, let's look at the data. Here are the two men's respective bodies of work.

Tyrone Willingham			Charlie Weis
Opponent			Opponent
(N) Maryland	W	22-0	@ Pittsburgh	W	42-21
Purdue	W	24-17	@ Michigan	W	17-10
Michigan	W	25-23	Michigan State	L	41-44
@ Michigan State	W	21-17	@ Washington	W	36-17
Stanford	W	31-7	@ Purdue	W	49-28
Pittsburgh	W	14-6	USC	L	31-34
@ Air Force	W	21-14	Brigham Young	W	49-23
@ Florida State	W	34-24	Tennessee	W	41-21
Boston College	L	7-14	Navy	W	42-21
(N) Navy	W	30-23	Syracuse	W	34-10
Rutgers	W	42-0	@ Stanford	W	38-31
@ USC	L	13-44	(N) Ohio State	L	20-34
(N) NC State	L	6-28	@ Georgia Tech	W	14-10
Washington State	W	29-26	Penn State	W	41-17
@ Michigan	L	0-38	Michigan	L	21-47
Michigan State	L	16-22	@ Michigan State	W	40-37
@ Purdue	L	10-23	Purdue	W	35-21
@ Pittsburgh	W	20-14	Stanford	W	31-10
USC	L	14-45	UCLA	W	20-17
@ Boston College	L	25-27	(N) Navy	W	38-14
Florida State	L	0-37	North Carolina	W	45-26
Navy	W	27-24	@ Air Force	W	39-17
Brigham Young	W	33-14	Army	W	41-9
@ Stanford	W	57-7	@ USC	L	24-44
@ Syracuse	L	12-38	(N) LSU	L	14-41
@ Brigham Young	L	17-20	Georgia Tech
Michigan	W	28-20	@ Penn State
@ Michigan State	W	31-24	@ Michigan
Washington	W	38-3	Michigan State
Purdue	L	16-41	@ Purdue
Stanford	W	23-15	@ UCLA
(N) Navy	W	27-9	Boston College
Boston College	L	23-24	USC
@ Tennessee	W	17-13	Navy
Pittsburgh	L	38-41	Air Force
@ USC	L	10-41	Duke
			@ Stanford
TOTALS	21-15	+18	TOTALS	19-6	+242

Weis holds a decisive advantage in winning percentage (.760 to .583) and point differential (+242 to +18). However, Wilner would correctly point out that he never contended otherwise. His argument was that (a) Bob Davie (35-25 .583) and Gerry Faust (30-26-1 .535) both had equal or lesser winning percentages, but were allowed to complete their five-year contracts, and (b) Notre Dame claimed its firing of Willingham was justified by lopsided defeats in big games, yet Weis isn't being pressured despite recent lopsided defeats to USC and LSU.

Both of these arguments can be addressed at once. Davie and Faust combined for seven defeats by 21 points or more in ten years of coaching Notre Dame. Willingham suffered eight defeats by at least three touchdowns in just three years. In other words, Davie and Faust were averaging less than one such defeat per season, while Willingham was averaging almost three. And some of these (NC State, Purdue, Syracuse) were in situations where Notre Dame was favored to win. In contrast, Charlie Weis has suffered two such defeats, both in 2006 and both to top-10 teams (Michigan and LSU). Wilner's position is defeated.

There are other arguments people sometimes make in addition to what Wilner contended. If you have an argument to the contrary, feel free to reply to this post. We here at College Football Nation would be happy to discuss it with you.

A Modest Proposal

So what about a rematch? Ohio State and Michigan in Glendale. Here is the best option: No overtime in Saturday's "Judgment Day." If the two teams get to the end of the game with a tie, we leave it a tie and settle the business in Arizona. I don't know how everyone else feels about it, but it's got an almost WWF style suspense to it.

That and Mark May eats babies.

Yours truly,

Jonathan Swift

Who Should Play for the Title?

Chris gave his take on this potential BCS mess. Now it's my turn. Let me start off by saying that Rutgers will not be undefeated at the end of the season. I predict they will lose to Cincinnati and West Virginia. Nevertheless, an undefeated Rutgers should not be given the opportunity to play for the national championship. Why? For the same reason that Louisville and West Virginia should not have been given the opportunity - it sets a bad precedent. The Big East got fat this year on playing a ridiculously weak non-conference schedule. If the Big East is rewarded with a shot at the national championship, then it will only further propagate this cowardly habit. Ohio State went down to Austin and played the defending national champions. Arkansas played the Trojans. What did Rutgers do besides play a couple of overrated in-conference foes? If Rutgers goes to the title game, then college football as we know it is dead.

So who should go? Well, that's a complicated issue. The Trojans have been unimpressive this year, with the exception of a big opening victory against Arkansas. They're ranked third in the BCS largely on reputation. However, if USC can beat Cal, Notre Dame, and UCLA in the next three weeks, they might have a legitimate case. With the way things have been going since the installation of Charlie Weis as head coach of Notre Dame, the Trojans better watch out next week, provided they handle the Golden Bears on Saturday. After all, Reggie Bush isn't available to push Booty into the end zone this time.

How about Florida? Well, they've been unimpressive, also. South Carolina nearly sunk the Gators, but thanks to poor special teams, Florida chomps on. If they win the SEC and USC loses one of the last three, these guys will get the nod, but they don't really deserve it. The SEC is usually college football's strongest conference, but it isn't this year.

What about Arkansas? The Razorbacks have been white hot since opening up by taking a 50-14 drubbing at the hands of the Trojans. If Arkansas wins out, they will have a legitimate claim to a spot in the title game.

How about Notre Dame? The Irish played most of their tough games to start the year. They struggled several times this year, and have not looked like a national championship contender. Nevertheless, a big win over a one-loss USC in the Coliseum could punch Notre Dame's ticket to Glendale, setting up either a rematch of the 2006 Fiesta Bowl or with Michigan. Notre Dame looked overmatched in both of those contests.

What about an all-Big Ten final? This is a terrible idea. Contrary to what the talking heads in Bristol are saying, no one outside of the Midwest is interested in seeing Ohio State and Michigan play twice. The very idea renders the first matchup meaningless. Playing in a conference means you have to win it to contend for the title. If you lose the de facto conference championship game, well then I guess that's just how it goes. Sorry.

Having considered these choices, it is apparent there is no good answer to this question. Whatever the answer winds up being, be sure that there will be plenty of grumbling.

The Only Fair Way

So, winner of Michigan-Ohio State against who in the title game? That is the debate of debates now-a-days on ESPN and all other college football headquarters. Let's analyze the possibilities very closely ...

The Loser of Ohio State-Michigan
Jim Tressel doesn't want it. Lloyd Carr doesn't want it. It would be a rematch with no games played inbetween. It doesn't make very much sense.

If this is the solution, they might as well bring the National Championship to Columbus to give after Saturday's game and call that the BCS National Championship game.

Florida
The Gators have been dangerous with the split quarterback situation, but in all honesty, this team has struggled in every game they have played. They have skidded their way to a 9-1 record and just have not been dominant enough to be considered the best in the land.

USC
A popular choice -- since they are used to being in the title game. If they win out, certainly USC gets the nod (quality wins over Arkansas, Oregon, California, Notre Dame and UCLA), but that is HIGHLY unlikely. Look for losses against Cal and ND.

Arkansas
An SEC championship would put them in a good spot, but they still would fall short if Notre Dame wins out. Strength of schedule would make this argument seem ridiculous, but if you look to the common opponent in that situation (USC), Notre Dame has to go in ahead of the Razorbacks.

Notre Dame
Another popular choice. Michigan loss looks bad and will have difficulty placing them in a rematch with the Wolverines or in ahead of the Wolverines should Ohio State win. They definitely get the nod over Arkansas in that circumstance and would eliminate USC for the discussion (Arkansas eliminates Florida from that discussion as well). This would create an interesting conundrum ...

Wisconsin, Wake Forest, Boise State
Yeah, the records look good, but there isn't all that much substance there. Wisconsin will get screwed because the Big Ten can only send two to the BCS.

Rutgers
The Knights in Scarlet Armor. This is the only clear choice. Situational analysis: Ohio State beats Michigan. Notre Dame wins out (beating Army and USC) -- USC is out of the picture. Arkansas wins out (beating LSU, Miss. State and Florida) -- Florida is out of the picture. Rutgers wins out (beating West Virginia). We have four teams vying for the spot. Michigan, Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Rutgers. Michigan claims they beat Notre Dame so they deserve the spot. Notre Dame claims that they beat USC who beat Arkansas so they deserve the spot. Ohio State claims they beat Michigan and don't need to prove themselves again against them.

An undefeated Rutgers is the only clear answer.

The arguments brought against them:

1. The game will be a blowout for Ohio State -- fine, it's a blowout and Ohio State is the best team in the country. At least it will be definitive.

2. Rutgers is unproven -- give them a chance to prove themselves. Here it is; you want your measuring stick its right there.

Any other combination gives a team a shot, leaving equivolant teams complaining through the rest of bowl season (a la Oregon last year). Rutgers is the way to go.

Congratulations Miami

That's right. Miami, my hat is off to you. You established yourself as the most thug school in the country, displacing reigning champ USC. In fact, college football has enough thuggery to put together a "Thug Rankings." ESPN has their Power 16 and their Bottom 10, so we over at CFBN figured "Why the hell not a Thug 8?" Here is a top 8 list that would make 50 Cent squeamish:

1. Miami
Brawling, shooting and group sex -- the U has some issues to address immediately. The Hurricanes have established carte blanche with the administration and can seemingly get away with whatever they want. If the players are angry on the field, they will pick a fight. If the players are out on the street, they will carry guns and knives. If the players are horny, they will rap about it. Larry Coker, you old fool, do something. And to the university administration, shame on you.

2. USC
Matt Leinart impregnates some chick from the women's basketball team and is then sighted wooing Paris Hilton and Jessica Simpson (no worries, I'm sure he'll be a devote parent). Reggie Bush steals money from a marketing agency and violates NCAA regulations while retaining his Heisman. LenDale White instigates a brawl in his first NFL practice, continuing his days as a spark in the powderkeg of the Trojan lockerroom. The alumns of USC are just adding to their storied program a la O.J. Simpson. I don't understand why this is happening. Haven't the teachings of Pete Carroll guests like Snoop Dawg sunk in yet?

3. Ohio State
I don't know who is worse -- the players or the fans. I could ramble on about Maurice and Co., but that's been played out. Let's talk about the fans. They are drunk, they are obnoxious, and they are violent. When they lose football games, they burn stuff. When they win football games, they burn stuff. If they don't like you, they will crap in your cooler (if you are lucky). Bowl games do not want them because they do travel in droves, are a public disturbance and are extremely cheap. They embody everything that is wrong with college football. I'm going to open up a shop in Columbus called "Flammable Furniture" and retire in style -- somewhere other than Ohio that is.

4. Colorado
Two words -- Katie Hnida. For those that are unfamiliar, Katie Hnida was a female walk-on kicker at Colorado (yes, just like in Necessary Roughness). Alright, she wasn't that good. She missed virtually every kick she took, but still she did not deserve what the Buffaloes did to her. After one practice, the Colorado football team group raped her. She transferred to New Mexico and then told her story. In response to this, Head Coach Gary Barnett simply replied, "She was a **nt. She wasn't a good football player anyway." Meanwhile, their student section is among the worst in the country (see Ohio State). They might suck this year, but Dan Hawkins is at least cleaning the program up.

5. Michigan State
The Spartans play with some sort of tribal pride that allows their emotions to get them into sticky situations. They planted their flag at the Notre Dame 35-yard line (the Irish did not respond back). However, they brought the house on Illinois for doing the same on the "S" at Spartan Stadium. I believe this raw emotion comes directly from their fearless leader, John L. Smith. He acts like a child on the sidelines, and in the pressroom, and probably in practice. The Spartans will have a revamping like Colorado when they finally can Smith this year.

6. Virginia Tech
Vick unto Vick. Virginia Tech has a reputation among college students as a rowdy, overly playful, alcoholic Disney. But thuggery? Come on, you boys are better than that. With the departure of Marcus Vick, the Hokies fall considerably on this list, but Marcus was enough to push Virginia Tech onto the thug list. Vick is documented as having numerous felonies brought against him (I believe rape and possession of a firearm top the list), but his actions in the bowl game have left a sour taste in this writer's mouth. Give it time and Tech might move off the thug list.

7. Florida International
We placed a lot of blame on Miami, as did everyone else in the media. I want to make something clear though: Miami did not instigate that fight. Florida International started that brawl. We expect more of Miami; they are an experienced program that should have not let that escalate. However, the blame for the brawl belongs to FIU.

8. South Carolina
The Gamecocks have their history of thuggish behavior. The most recent case came in Lou Holtz's last year as the head coach, when they instigated a bench-clearing brawl with instate-rival Clemson.

I'm not sure how long this installment will last, but I will take some feedback from our readers on their experiences with thuggish behavior. You have a story -- chime in on the comments board.

Peterson, Wolfe Exit Heisman Race

Saturday was a bad day for halfback Heisman hopefuls.

Adrian Peterson of Oklahoma and Garrett Wolfe of Northern Illinois performed poorly yesterday, leaving a clear two-man race for the Heisman -- Ohio State's Troy Smith and Notre Dame's Brady Quinn.

Peterson rushed for 179 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but broke his collarbone and will miss the rest of the season. Peterson is no stranger to the disabled list, with season-ending injuries both of his previous years with the Sooners. Without Peterson, Oklahoma will have difficulty advancing through its Big XII South schedule unscathed.

Wolfe exited the race due to inefficiency. Overhyped by ESPN, Wolfe carried for only 42 yards against conference foe Western Michigan. In order to stay a contender, Wolfe would have needed to step up every single weekend. A performance this poor by a player in a mid-major conference is the kiss of death to Heisman voters.

This exodus of running back talent leaves Steve Slaton (West Virginia), Mike Hart (Michigan), and Ian Johnson (Boise State) as the top backs in the country. But in all fairness, 2006 is now officially the year of the quarterback. Good luck to Troy and Brady on their campaigns.

Midseason Evaluations: The Top Talent

We have reached midseason, and with that, it's time for some midseason evaluations. We will begin by looking at the top talent in college football thus far, assessing the pro prospects from the chumps. Here are the top 10 at the big three offensive positions thus far:

Quarterbacks
1. Troy Smith, Ohio State
2. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame
3. Erik Ainge, Tennessee
4. Chris Leak, Florida
5. John David Booty, USC
6. Tyler Palko, Pittsburgh
7. Kevin Kolb, Houston
8. Colt McCoy, Texas
9. John Beck, BYU
10. Chad Henne, Michigan

Others to watch: Colt Brennan (Hawaii), Chase Daniel (Missouri), Nate Longshore (California), JeMarcus Russell (LSU), Drew Tate (Iowa), Zac Taylor (Nebraska), Andre' Woodson (Kentucky)

Running Backs
1. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma
2. Mike Hart, Michigan
3. Steve Slaton, West Virginia
4. Garrett Wolfe, Northern Illinois
5. Ian Johnson, Boise State
6. Marshawn Lynch, California
7. James Davis, Clemson
8. Kenny Irons, Auburn
9. Antonio Pittman, Ohio State
10. Darren McFadden, Arkansas

Others to watch: Tashard Choice (Georgia Tech), Arian Foster (Tennessee), Jovorskie Lane (Texas A&M), Ray Rice (Rutgers), Jonathan Stewart (Oregon), George Stripling (Louisville), Darius Walker (Notre Dame)

Wide Receivers
1. Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech
2. Ted Ginn, Ohio State
3. Mario Manningham, Michigan
4. Jeff Samardzija, Notre Dame
5. Dwayne Jarrett, USC
6. Limas Sweed, Texas
7. Sidney Rice, South Carolina
8. Robert Meacham, Tennessee
9. Steve Smith, USC
10. Rhema McKnight, Notre Dame

Others to Watch: Dorien Bryant (Purdue), Anthony Gonzalez (Ohio State), Jason Hill (Washington State), DeSean Jackson (California), Derek Kinder (Pittsburgh), Jayson Swain (Tennessee), Derrick Williams (Penn State)

The Great Debate

Urban Meyer is looking a championship in the face ... but it might not be this year. With quarterbacks Chris Leak and Tim Tebow engineering the Gators to a 5-0 start in the SEC, many are starting to question who should be the starter in Gainesville. Let CFBN settle the debate.

Tim Tebow is the quarterback of the future, and he will be the man who brings a National Championship home to Florida, but it will not be this year.

If Florida pulls Chris Leak, this team will fall apart. He is a four-year starter who is the heart of this team. The offense is calibrated to his system. The defense rallies around his leadership. Besides which, he is putting up fantastic Heisman numbers right now.

Tim Tebow is being used effectively as a backup with occasionally playing time. His usage in trick plays has paid off thus far.

As I said, Tebow is the future of the Florida program. I predict he will face off against the other quickly climbing program - Notre Dame - and their top quarterback recruit, Jimmy Clausen, in a year or two.

But before Meyer can think about those days, he needs to figure out how to handle a red-hot LSU team this Saturday. This is the second test for the Gators, who downed Tennessee a few weeks ago. If they can get past the Bayou Bengals, perhaps the future is now for the Florida program ... but the man will remain Chris Leak.

Who's the Best?

We've seen four weeks of college football now, and while the major polls have not changed from their original position on Ohio State, anyone who watched Penn State push the Buckeyes around has to be wondering. Meanwhile, the Trojans' offense for the second consecutive week looked more ordinary than in years' past. Notre Dame, the bandwagon choice at the start of the year, just barely kept its title hopes alive in East Lansing. Miami and Florida State are already on the outside looking in.

All of this leads me to one conclusion: the Auburn Tigers should be the nation's top-ranked team. Of the undefeateds, Auburn has played in the toughest ballgame to date - a gutsy 7-3 victory over LSU. Ohio State beat Texas, but the Longhorns looked nothing like Vince Young's national championship squad of a year ago. And the Buckeyes' struggles against a Penn State team that got absolutely thwacked by Notre Dame suggests they aren't as unbeatable as the media would lead you to believe. The same can be said of Southern California. An anemic Pac-10 (the decimal point has been misplaced one spot to the right for a few years) likely will allow the Trojans to march into its last game of the season undefeated. (I predict they will not survive that showdown with Notre Dame, whose defense will be buoyed by seven games of experience for its fast freshmen defensive backs.)

In contrast, Auburn just looks mean so far this year. They may not have the offensive pizzaz that Ohio State is capable of, but no team can match Auburn's balance -- and their defense is just nasty. This may be the year Tuberville's kids finally get invited to the dance. Woe to their dance partners.

Larry Coker Out at Miami?

Rumors are flying all over that the University of Miami Board of Trustees called an emergency meeting today at 3 p.m. to approve the dismissal of head football coach Larry Coker. Since winning the national championship in his first season at Miami, the Hurricanes' level of play has consistently deteriorated.

Despite the recent slide, Miami is one of the most attractive coaching jobs in college football. If patient, the Hurricanes should be able to land a top-level coach. Here is an incomplete list of candidates likely to be considered by Miami:

1) Rich Rodriguez (head coach, West Virginia) - Great choice, but likely won't leave Morgantown. Especially not now.

2) Greg Schiano (head coach, Rutgers) - Schiano probably should have been the coach at Miami instead of Coker to begin with. If Miami wants him, it shouldn't be hard to lure him away from Rutgers.

3) Butch Davis (former Miami head coach) - Why not? Davis had tremendous success in his first stint at Miami, dominating college football for most of his tenure before Coker ruined the fruits of his labor.

4) Steve Mariucci (former 49ers head coach) - Miami fans are talking about this one, but it really doesn't make much sense.

5) Pat Hill (head coach, Fresno State) - Hill has been successful without that much to work with. Given Miami's vast drawing power, he might make for a big-time hire. He might also make for a big-time flop.

6) Mark Richt (head coach, Georgia) - Not going to happen. Why would Richt leave the plum he has in Athens?

7) Paul Johnson (head coach, Navy) - Miami probably won't even consider Johnson, but no coach in Division I-A football has manufactured a better turnaround than he has at the Naval Academy. The main concern would be whether he could have success at a prestigious football school running a high-octane offense, rather than the option.

8) George O'Leary (head coach, UCF) - This man can coach. He shouldn't be Miami's first choice, but he should be on the list.

9) Mike Price (head coach, UTEP) - What was said above about O'Leary also applies for Price.

10) Randy Shannon (assistant coach, Miami) - The likely next head coach of Miami, if only on an interim basis.

From the Ground Up

Sure, he has gotten into his share of trouble in the past, but Ohio University Head Coach Frank Solich has managed to improve on a desolate program in the shadow of No. 1 Ohio State.

The former Nebraska head coach took over with the Bobcats after the Cornhuskers dismissed him for a 9-3 season. When Solich came to Ohio, he saw a program that hadn't had a winning season in over four years, with one and two win seasons becoming the norm.

Solich's first season with the Bobcats brought them to a 4-7 record in the MAC, with big losses to Northwestern and Virginia Tech and an upset victory over Pittsburgh.

This season, Ohio is playing a bit better than in years past. After pounding UT-Martin 29-3 in the opener, Solich's Bobcats came back against an impressive Northern Illinois team for a 35-23 win.

So, the question that remains is "Can Solich turn Ohio into a MAC contender?" For that answer let's look to the Bobcat schedule.

They have Rutgers and Missouri the next two weekends, which will prove to be tough tests for the boys in green, but then it opens up into their conference games. Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Illinois, Buffalo, Kent State, Eastern Michigan, Akron and Miami (OH) are all winable games, but will require some good playcalling by the 'ball coach.

At 2-0, a realistic expectation for Solich would be a winning season, but if he can manage a 9-3 record with Ohio, I can assure you he will not be dismissed again.

Brainlock Once More at ESPN

Jason Whitlock should not be allowed to vote in the Associated Press college football poll. Recently on ESPN.com, Whitlock released his voting, providing explanation of his reasoning. That said, his number one team to begin the year is West Virginia. Okay, before Mountaineer fans get all over me, let me say that I do not consider picking West Virginia as the number one to be wholly unreasonable. But Whitlock emphasizes that his choice is based upon the weak schedule West Virginia will face in 2006. There's where the boneheadedness comes in, friends.

In case it isn't obvious why, allow me to explain. Year after year, there are complaints that Team X or Team Y's record is inflated by a weak schedule. With the way scheduling works in NCAA football, this is inevitable. Now you have a guy like Whitlock actually rewarding such a school for having a weak schedule. In essence, this becomes a double whammy. Not only does the school, in this case West Virginia, get the opportunity to inflate its record on cream puffs, but now they have writers inflating their ranking based on the prediction that it will inflate its record on cream puffs.

Polls are supposed to rate the relative strength of schools going into the season, not how the writer expects them to finish. These polls exist because there is no way each of these schools can play one another to determine objective strength. Voting based on how one believes a team will finish at season's end defeats the purpose of having a poll in the first place.