Weis vs. Willingham

In a recent article in the San Jose Mercury News, author Jon Wilner builds the argument that if Notre Dame dismissed Tyrone Willingham for losing badly against elite teams, then the same standard should be held to Charlie Weis. He goes so far as to say that should Notre Dame not tighten the screws on Weis in 2007 -- pending lopsided defeats against foes like USC and Michigan -- then it would appear to be racially charged.

"Notre Dame" and "racist" are two phrases that have been coupled together with some regularity since the dismissal of Willingham, so this warrants some discussion. So let me make it clear: Notre Dame's termination of Willingham was a business decision, not an act of racism. Furthermore, dismissal of Weis after next season would be a poor business decision, and that is why Wilner is somewhat misguided. Allow me to explain before you either write me off or nominate me for a Pulitzer (depending on your stake in the debate).

First of all, let's look at the data. Here are the two men's respective bodies of work.

Tyrone Willingham			Charlie Weis
Opponent			Opponent
(N) Maryland	W	22-0	@ Pittsburgh	W	42-21
Purdue	W	24-17	@ Michigan	W	17-10
Michigan	W	25-23	Michigan State	L	41-44
@ Michigan State	W	21-17	@ Washington	W	36-17
Stanford	W	31-7	@ Purdue	W	49-28
Pittsburgh	W	14-6	USC	L	31-34
@ Air Force	W	21-14	Brigham Young	W	49-23
@ Florida State	W	34-24	Tennessee	W	41-21
Boston College	L	7-14	Navy	W	42-21
(N) Navy	W	30-23	Syracuse	W	34-10
Rutgers	W	42-0	@ Stanford	W	38-31
@ USC	L	13-44	(N) Ohio State	L	20-34
(N) NC State	L	6-28	@ Georgia Tech	W	14-10
Washington State	W	29-26	Penn State	W	41-17
@ Michigan	L	0-38	Michigan	L	21-47
Michigan State	L	16-22	@ Michigan State	W	40-37
@ Purdue	L	10-23	Purdue	W	35-21
@ Pittsburgh	W	20-14	Stanford	W	31-10
USC	L	14-45	UCLA	W	20-17
@ Boston College	L	25-27	(N) Navy	W	38-14
Florida State	L	0-37	North Carolina	W	45-26
Navy	W	27-24	@ Air Force	W	39-17
Brigham Young	W	33-14	Army	W	41-9
@ Stanford	W	57-7	@ USC	L	24-44
@ Syracuse	L	12-38	(N) LSU	L	14-41
@ Brigham Young	L	17-20	Georgia Tech
Michigan	W	28-20	@ Penn State
@ Michigan State	W	31-24	@ Michigan
Washington	W	38-3	Michigan State
Purdue	L	16-41	@ Purdue
Stanford	W	23-15	@ UCLA
(N) Navy	W	27-9	Boston College
Boston College	L	23-24	USC
@ Tennessee	W	17-13	Navy
Pittsburgh	L	38-41	Air Force
@ USC	L	10-41	Duke
			@ Stanford
TOTALS	21-15	+18	TOTALS	19-6	+242

Weis holds a decisive advantage in winning percentage (.760 to .583) and point differential (+242 to +18). However, Wilner would correctly point out that he never contended otherwise. His argument was that (a) Bob Davie (35-25 .583) and Gerry Faust (30-26-1 .535) both had equal or lesser winning percentages, but were allowed to complete their five-year contracts, and (b) Notre Dame claimed its firing of Willingham was justified by lopsided defeats in big games, yet Weis isn't being pressured despite recent lopsided defeats to USC and LSU.

Both of these arguments can be addressed at once. Davie and Faust combined for seven defeats by 21 points or more in ten years of coaching Notre Dame. Willingham suffered eight defeats by at least three touchdowns in just three years. In other words, Davie and Faust were averaging less than one such defeat per season, while Willingham was averaging almost three. And some of these (NC State, Purdue, Syracuse) were in situations where Notre Dame was favored to win. In contrast, Charlie Weis has suffered two such defeats, both in 2006 and both to top-10 teams (Michigan and LSU). Wilner's position is defeated.

There are other arguments people sometimes make in addition to what Wilner contended. If you have an argument to the contrary, feel free to reply to this post. We here at College Football Nation would be happy to discuss it with you.